Scenario-based Prediction Of Building Carbon Emissions And Peak Control Strategies In Hubei Province

The building sector is a key area for energy saving and emission reduction in China, and nowadays the focus of policy related to buiding carbon emissions control is shifting from increment reduction to total amount control. The prediction of building carbon emissions is the basis of achieving building carbon emissions cap. This thesis, taking Hubei province as the research object, aims to propose a mid-long term predicted approach for building carbon emissions on the provincial scale, and then provides a decision-making support for building carbon emissions and its peak control of Hubei province.Scenario analysis is introduced in this thesis to predict building carbon emissions in a med-long term as the prediction is influenced by many complicated factors and has a characteristic of high uncertainty. Firstly, the definition of building carbon emissions on provincial scale is given, and a calculation method that adapt to current building energy statistical system in China is developed, which lay a foundation for scenarios' development and prediction of building carbon emissions. Secondly, based on the theories of scenario analysis and LMDI, a scenario-based forecast process of provincial building carbon emissions is built, and six predicited scenarios for Hubei province are developed. Finally, the trend of building carbon emissions from 2012 to 2030 in Hubei province and its peak are predicited, the pathes of achieving the goal of building carbon emissions control in 2020 and 2030 are analyzed, and the relevant policies of building carbon emissions and its peak control for Hubei province are put forward.The following conclusions are drawn:(1) Per capita building area, unit building area energy consumption and urbanization are three main drivers for the increase of building carbon emissions in Hubei province from 1995 to 2012.(2) The control policies of per capita building area and unit building area energy consumption can effectively reduce the growth of building carbon emissions of Hubei province, and with the enhancement of these policies, the peak of building carbon emissions can appeare before the year of 2030.(3) The controlling target of building carbon emissions of Hubei province in 2020 is estimated between 11310.4 million tons and 12336.6 million tons, and further reducing unit building area energy consumption is a suitable policy to achieve this goal.(4) The policy of unit building area energy consumption control, particularly the policy for public buildings, has good effects on reducing the peak of building carbon emissions and making the peak year appear as soon as possible, and the control effectiveness of the policy related to per capita building area on the peak of building carbon emissions of Hubei province is limited.