Simulation Of Carbon Emission System And Low Carbon Scenario In Shandong Province Based On System Dynamic

While energy consumption has promoted rapid economic develop ment,it has also produced a large amount of carbon emissions.T his has triggered a series of environmental deterioration such as g1 obal warming and sea level rise,which seriously threatens human production and life safety.Low-carbon economy came into being i n this context.It is urgent to reduce carbon emissions while devel oping the economy.As the world's largest developing country,the Chinese government has made a carbon emission reduction commit ment of 2020,which is a 40%-45%reduction in carbon emission intensity compared to 2005,and requires all provinces to carry out specific emission reduction target planning in light of their own c ircumstances.As the province of China's economic development an d energy consumption,Shandong Province also ranks the top in ca rbon emissions in the country.In order to better fulfill its carbon reduction obligations,Shandong Province proposed a carbon reducti on target of 2020,which is a carbon emission reduction of 20.5%from 2015,in the low-carbon development work plan.Based on the current situation of economic development,energy consumption and carbon emissions in Shandong Province,this pa per starts from the perspective of system dynamics,simulates the carbon emissions system in Shandong Province,and simulates the low-carbon development scenarios in the future.Firstly,this paper uses the LMDI index method to construct the carbon emission im pact decomposition model to decompose the influencing factors of total carbon emissions in Shandong Province from 2005 to 2015,and derives the direction of influence of each influencing factor on carbon emission changes.influence level.Then,based on factor decomposition results and system dynamics theory,the carbon em issions system in Shandong Province was decomposed into four su bsystems:energy,economy,population,and environment.Through the analysis of the feedback relationships of major variables within each subsystem,Shandong was constructed.The system dynamics model of the provincial carbon emission system.After the validit y test of the model was performed,the existing development scen arios were simulated,and it was concluded that the existing scenar ios could not complete the established carbon emission reduction t argets in Shandong Province.In the next step,combining 16 majo r low-carbon development scenarios with major influence factors a nd low-carbon development policies,we developed and simulated,and selected 6 feasible options with 2020 as compared with the 2015 carbon emission intensity decrease of 20.5%.Then,the inline decision index method was used to evaluate the decision-making o f different scenarios and find the optimal carbon emission reductio n plan in each case.Finally,relevant low-carbon development poli cies and suggestions were put forward based on carbon emission r eduction plan.