Research On Early Warning Of Coupled Human-natural Systems Vulnerability Of Eficient Eco-economic Zone In The Yellow River Delta

In recent years,the features of ecosystem vulnerability of efficient eco-economic zone in the Yellow River Delta is distinctive and in the peak period of development.It is great significance for promoting rational and efficient utilization and effective protection of land resources,alleviating the contradiction between man and land in the study area and further exploring the mode of eco-economic development to carry out early warning research of coupled human-natural systems vulnerability,and to clarify the situation and development trend of the human-natural systems vulnerability.Based on the theories of systems,human-land relationship and sustainable development,with concepts of coupled human-natural systems vulnerability,this paper analyzed the actual situation of efficient eco-economic zone in the Yellow River Delta,distinguished the warning sources,and established an operational early warning index system,on this bases further divided the warning areas and determined the warning limits.What's more,this paper analyzed the actual situation of the Yellow River Delta high-efficiency eco-economic zone,identified the warning sources,established an operational vulnerability early warning index system of the man-land coupling system,reasonably divided the warning areas and determined the warning limits.With this as the evaluative and predictable criterion,this paper made space-time analysis of the warning situation qualitatively and quantitatively.Furthermore,scientific suggestions were put forward to reduce the vulnerability of the coupled human-natural systems in the study area.(1)After systematically combing the connotation and theories of early warning of coupled human-natural systems vulnerability,this study defined that the vulnerability was not only the degree which the systems was exposed to adverse external environment,but also the sensitivity and the adaptability of the systems when they are disturbed by internal and external factors result in structural damage or functional disorder,and imbalance of the man-land relationship,and it's hard to recover at the same time;the guiding role in describing the relationship between human and nature,clarifying the vulnerability warning situation,following the rules of system's operation,and regulate and manage the human-earth system was revealed detailed by explaining the theories of systems,human-land relationship and sustainable development.(2)The natural,social and economic situations and the land utilization condition in the efficient eco-economic zone in the Yellow River Delta were described;the main problems such as the serious land degradation,the prominent population-land conflicts,the critical phenomenon of land pollution in the study area were analyzed;the complex and changeable characteristics of the coupled human-natural systems in the study area under the action of multiple dynamic systems were revealed.(3)Through the analyzed of the connotations and the theories of early warning of coupled human-natural systems vulnerability,combined with the current situations of man-land relationship in the study area,the warning sources were distinguished.Based on the framework of VSD model,the vulnerability early warning index system of early warning of vulnerability in study area was established from three aspects of exposure,sensitivity and adaptability.Then the vulnerability indices of coupled human-natural systems in 19 cities in the study area were calculated and predicted by using BP neural network model and GM(1,1)grey prediction model.Furthermore five warning zones,namely "Heavy warning","Medium warning","Early warning","Relatively safety" and "safety",were divided to analyze the temporal and spatial evolution characteristics of early warning of vulnerability.The results show that: from 2007 to 2017,the vulnerability of the coupled human-natural systems of efficient eco-economic zone in the Yellow River Delta developed well,and showed a steady downward trend with the vulnerability indices decreases from 1.187 to 0.986,and the transited from "Medium warning" to "Relatively safety" areas;it is predicted that the vulnerability will decrease steadily from 2018 to 2022,and it will be out of the early warning state,besides,the vulnerability indices in 2022 is 0.879 and probably become "safety";the spatial variations of early warning of coupled human-natural systems vulnerability in the cities of the study area were significant,showed the trend of overall decentralization,local agglomeration and continuous distribution.The spatial patterns of vulnerability warning is low in the South and high in the north,and gradually intensified from inland to coastal areas;three spatial and temporal evolution characteristics were mainly showed that stable vulnerability,volatile vulnerability and low vulnerability;some cities belonging to Dongying and Binzhou had serious vulnerability warning.(4)Suggestions are put forward for different regions in terms of strictly controlling excessive waste discharge,strengthening ecological restoration and optimizing land use structure.