Research On The Methodology And Technology Of Typical City Disaster-Bearing Capacity Analysis

With the advancement of urbanization,the economic and social development of Chinese cities is rapidly promoting.Population and wealth are increasingly concentrated,so the public safety risks that cities are facing are also increasing,which places higher demands on the assessment of city disaster-bearing capacity(CDC).Therefore,this study aims to establish a set of model and methods that can assess CDC better.Based on this,and in combination with safety production accident,which is the most common in city public safety accidents,this study also has a target to comprehensively investigate the city's public safety situation.And these results are expected to provide scientific data support for the decision-making of relevant government departments.In this study,the method,Evidential Reasoning(ER)combined with Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP),is used.The combination influence of qualitative and quantitative indicators is comprehensively considered,and the collected data is transformed into gridded data.After processing,this study finishes the assessment of the CDC of one city in east China.The assessment result of the high precision CDC on the scale of 1km×1km is more practical than traditional assessment results that are based on administrative units.Based on this,for the optimal allocation problem of city emergency resources,the Simulated Annealing Algorithm(SAA)is used to optimize the configuration of emergency resources,and a better emergency resource allocation scheme is obtained.On the other hand,based on this model,and combined with relevant indicator data of Beijing's safety production field and CDC,this study also assess the safety production situation of districts and counties in Beijing.The safety production index obtained provides scientific data support for safety production supervision and management.And the sensitivity analysis of the proposed model and method is finished combined with this case study.The assessment results of the above two cases are basically consistent with the actual situation in the local area.And the sensitivity analysis results are positive.These two facts prove that the model and method proposed in this study is scientifically feasible.The ability of the method to deal with the presence of both qualitative and quantitative indicators as well as the evaluation scale of high-precision grids at the level of 1km×1km is more advantageous than the traditional evaluation methods.