The Research On The Influence Of Export Structure On The Carbon Emission Under Low-carbon Economy Background

With the development of economy and technology,the problem of global warming has aroused the attention of all over the world,and the increase of carbon emissions is the root cause of this problem.In November 13 th,2017,the Global Carbon Project pointed out that the total global emissions of fossil fuels and industrial carbon dioxide are expected to reach a new record of about 370 billion tons by the end of 2017.As a large manufacturing country,China’s greenhouse gas emissions are high,and the products with high carbon dioxide emissions are concentrated in the manufacturing industry of the Jiangsu,Zhejiang and Guangdong provinces.Under the background of low carbon economy,the carbon tariffs on high carbon products will undoubtedly bring heavy losses to the growth of export trade and growth achieved through export trade in the Jiangsu,Zhejiang and Guangdong provinces.Therefore,the aim of this article is to comprehensively grasp the influence of export structure on the carbon emission of the three provinces of Jiangsu,Zhejiang and Guangdong under the background of low carbon,so as to provide an effective political suggestions and corresponding countermeasures for the transformation and upgrading of the three provinces’ export structure.This paper,which is divided into six chapters,adopts a theoretical and empirical analysis method.Firstly,this paper introduces the research background and the significance of the topic,the research content and the expected goal,the research methods and the research steps,as well as the possible innovation points and shortcomings of the paper.The second chapter sorts and sums the research results related to the problems of the low carbon economy and the carbon emission effect of trade opening by the domestic and foreign scholars.The third chapter introduces the related theory and influence mechanism of the export commodities that affect the carbon emissions.The fourth chapter analyzes the present situation of the three provinces’ export structure,calculates the carbon emission status of the three provinces through the carbon emission coefficient of various energy sources,and puts forward the existing problems in the present stage of the export structure of the three provinces.The fifth chapter selects the data of the related year,constructs the nonlinear regression model through the curve fitting,and uses the ADF stability test and cointegration test to analyze the impact and trend of the three provinces’ export structure on carbon emissions respectively.The sixth chapter draws the main conclusions of this paper,puts forward the corresponding policy suggestions,summarizes the shortcomings of this article and provides the direction for the follow-up research.The empirical results show that there is not only a linear positive correlation between the export structure of the three provinces and the carbon emissions,but a complex nonlinear relationship.Based on the analysis of the full text,we find that the trend of export structure and carbon emissions in Jiangsu,Zhejiang and Guangdong provinces all present exponential function relationship.As far as the current stage is concerned,the export structure of the three provinces has not been optimized continuously.And compared with the two provinces of Zhejiang and Guangdong,the export model of Jiangsu province is more unreasonable at the present stage,for the economic development models of the Jiangsu,Zhejiang and Guangdong province are different.Based on the above analysis,this paper puts forward corresponding policy recommendations in order to optimize the export structure of the three provinces’ exports.