| The past two decades, global warming has become the world universal attention. Globalclimate change has occurred obviously, the atmosphere constantly getting hot, disasters caused byclimate change are increasing. Global heat waves, droughts frequent; great Antarctic ice began tomelt, there is no ice in the Arctic Ocean; desert area gradually expanded; sea-level rise, resultingin an island nation in danger of being overwhelmed by the crisis; entire ecosystem is badlyaffected.With the rapid economic growth in China’s export-oriented process-driven feature isbecoming increasingly apparent, environmental pollution costs of its growth is also increasinglygrim. In this context, the impact of carbon emissions growth of international trade and theintroduction of FDI has become the focus of academic research. First, the environmental effects ofinternational trade-related research framework Grossman and Krueger (1991) study began in.Current academic impact of growth on the foreign trade environment is analyzed from the size,structure and technology of the three angles. Many scholars from different angles using differentmethods of international trade on the environmental effects were analyzed and tested, but summedup the existence of two distinct academic perspectives. One view is that international trade willbring about improvements in environmental quality, and the other view is that trade growth willlead to the deterioration of the environment. For example, Antweiler (2001) using regressionanalysis of environmental effects of trade were measured analysis, the growth of international tradedoes not necessarily bring pressure on the environment; scholars Eliste and Fredriksson (2002)consider that the environment can promote the growth of trade improvements.This paper intends to grow through trade and FDI inflows mechanism to determine theenvironmental effects of its impact on the various regions of China the path of carbon emissions.The traditional theory and empirical studies have shown that the growth of international trade andFDI was an alternative or complementary affect the relationship between inflows. That is, whentrade barriers are not the main obstacle to FDI inflows, as a supplement to international trade, FDIinflows will host the main export sector. Otherwise, as an alternative to the growth of internationaltrade, FDI inflows to the host country’s main import sector. Accordingly logic, the mechanism ofaction of the environmental effects of international trade growth among trading business was born,but comparatively speaking, FDI inflows occurred before the trade business growth, investmentdecisions are the subject of a micro-selectivity for trade and investment decisions. Thus, FDI inflows environmental effects of the decision on its mechanism of action inflows motivation. Basedon this, the paper will analyze and characterize the growth of international trade and FDI inflowsimpact on regional carbon emissions using modern econometric analysis.Thesis framework and main contents are as follows:Chapter1is an introduction, including issues raised, research significance, the definition ofcore concepts, review questions, the paper structure.Chapter2analyzes the export-oriented economy on the theory of environmental impact. Thischapter from the theoretical point of view, the detail-oriented economy mechanisms and pathwaysof environmental impact, which is the theoretical basis of this paper subsequent empirical tests.Chapter3Characteristics of export-oriented economy and regional carbon emissions andevolution path analysis. This chapter analyzes the pros and cons of various estimation methods, andthrough specific estimation results compared two methods commonly used estimate calculationresults are reasonable. And analyze the dynamic evolution characteristics of carbon emissions inChina on the basis of the results of the calculation. The article also take into account the economictheory, with the continuous expansion of the scale of economic growth, increasing energyconsumption, carbon emissions will therefore resulting " divergent growth", the micro-level,meso-level and macro-level convergence carbon emissions occur mechanism makes convergencephenomenon. Revenue increased in the process, as the industrial structure and the evolution ofinformation technology services, implementation and application of increased environmentalinvestment in clean technology, strengthen environmental protection requirements, environmentalregulations, etc., carbon emissions increased at first and then gradually decline, theoreticallythere will be convergence of circumstances, so carbon emissions convergence hypothesis holds. Inthis chapter, the use of estimates resulting carbon emissions data in China combined with paneldata model approach for the carbon emissions convergence hypothesis testing.Chapter4long export trade, FDI and regional carbon emissions, the analysis of short-termequilibrium relationship. Using the latest panel cointegration methods in this chapter-theheterogeneous panel cointegration estimation method of weighted symmetric equilibriumrelationship export China29regions, FDI and regions between carbon emissions inspection.Chapter5export trade, FDI and regional district system effects analysis of the impact ofcarbon emissions. FDI, export trade and the impact of carbon emission regions tend to have astructural change characteristics, environmental Kuznets curve first chapter related theoreticalanalysis and elaboration. Environmental Kuznets curve effect may exist system area. However,whether the data support the existence of district system effects, require the use of related methodsfor testing. This chapter uses the semi-parametric quantile regression theory of environmentalKuznets curve, whether there is a certain district system effects associated test.Chapter6export trade, FDI analysis of dynamic correlation structure effects and technicaleffects of regional carbon emissions. In this paper, data from the National total four angles, eastern, central and western region of the1987-2011decomposition of carbon emission structureeffect and technology effect decomposition. Through the establishment of a dynamic panel datamodel analysis and inspection of the FDI, the impact on export trade and technical effects of carbonemission structure effect region.Chapter7, conclusions and policy recommendations.The findings in this article:Similar trends provincial carbon dioxide emissions intensity and two measures. In the "Eighth Five-Year Plan "(1991-1995) and the " Tenth Five-Year Plan "(2001-2005), thecoefficient is displayed as an increasing trend, and in the "Ninth Five " program (1996-2000) andthe " Eleventh Five-Year plan"(2006-2010), the coefficient is shown as a downward trend.Although the trend in each period is stable, the overall trend cycle is not stable, and does notdecrease gradually, it is not unanimous conclusions convergent. From the estimation result can beseen, each of the models in the set, the coefficient is significantly negative. This means that thereis an absolute carbon dioxide emissions provincial convergence characteristics. You can also seefrom the results, and is significantly positive, so the effect is significant space exists. Theregression results also show that coal consumption reached total energy consumption, the ratio ofthe total industry output value of the second industry and energy intensity were statisticallysignificant impact on the growth rate of carbon dioxide emissions intensity, which further affectthe convergence rate of the provincial carbon dioxide emissions strength. In this paper, we analyzethe convergence of Chinese provincial-level carbon dioxide emissions intensity. We propose tointroduce spatial spillover effects into the space of pure dynamic panel data model dynamic paneldata model. By using this SDPD model, we can avoid omitted variable bias involved in thecross-sectional equation and pure dynamic panel data equation. Our empirical results show that:(1) Chinese provincial CO2emissions provincial convergence;(2) Conditional convergence ratethan the absolute-higher convergence rate;(3) inter-provincial spatial correlation between CO2emissions and convergence with consider the effect of a higher percentage of space;(4) coalconsumption reached total energy consumption, the ratio of the total industry output value of thesecond industry and energy intensity were statistically significant impact on the convergence rate.Through panel cointegration model can be tested to due Overall, China ’s exports to theincrease of CO2emissions has a positive effect, therefore, China needs to take measures to adjustthe industrial structure of both exports and technology. So on the whole export industry tointensive direction, through the development of appropriate industrial policy to encourage thedevelopment of low-power export industry, inhibit the development of export industries with highenergy consumption, thereby increasing the proportion of low-energy industry in the exportindustry, reducing energy-intensive industries the proportion of the export industry. Through acarbon tax, carbon trading platform of economic means, and actively guide the export industryproduction technology to develop in the direction of cleaner production. Structural effects and techniques in order to actively guide the effect of improving the environmental aspects of exportactive role in making gradual scale over the negative impact to the environment, so that theeconomic and environmental direction towards sustainable development. The impact on theenvironment due to the export of high, medium and low emission provinces vary, and thereforeshould have a regional policy targeted policies for high-emission provinces should be more robust,and policies, and low-emission provinces efforts should be strengthened. In the policy-makingprocess, should avoid excessive attention to a single region and surrounding areas bring additionalnegative impact should ensure fairness principle. Overall, FDI is also on the increase in CO2emissions has a positive effect, therefore, should attract FDI and to accept a more cautious attitudein keeping, considering the economic and social impact of FDI on the region. Given this positiveeffect is weak and some resources in the province, FDI on the environment along the coast, borderareas, improvements have a positive impact in these areas can also be appropriate to encourage FDIinflows. Due to the short-term, exports and FDI are not a strong impact on CO2emissions, andtherefore, in order to adjust the relationship between exports and CO2emissions, FDI and CO2emissions between economic and environmental policies to long-term policy is appropriate, theeffect of short-term measures is quite limited.In this paper, the use of semi-parametric quantile regression theory of environmental Kuznetscurve, whether there is a certain district system effects associated test. Study found that per capitaFDI variable coefficient is positive, and roughly the same value set in each model, this means thatthe variable is in the interpretation of carbon dioxide emissions per capita have their place, but to alesser degree affected. Foreign Trade Department of the per capita value of the variable is alsopositive, and per capita carbon dioxide emissions have a significant impact. However, afterobserving the per capita GDP-related variables, found under different model specification form(quadratic or cubic type) obtained coefficient estimates vary widely, there is a significant result ofthis semi-parametric regression analysis is necessary. In addition there was no significantdifference in weight of25%and10%and75%and90%weight between the two groups with eachother, the rest showed significant difference, and means under the different components,meanings are significantly different. These results indicate the importance of quantile regressionmethod, also shows different levels of carbon dioxide emissions per capita income between thetwo there are different variations. In addition to weight25%and10%and50%and75%of thecomponents of the two groups are not significantly different from each other, the other is there aresignificant differences, also explains under quantile regression, different levels of carbon dioxideemissions per capita GDP between the two there are different variations. The empirical resultsshow positive GDP and regional carbon dioxide emissions related to our various areas of highenergy consumption, high pollution growth pattern has not changed. Significantly negative,indicating the existence of the "inverted U" shaped relationship between regional GDP per capitacarbon dioxide emissions and the region. Meanwhile the impact of FDI on regional per capita carbon dioxide emissions per capita GDP due to different threshold impact in different directions.When the region ’s per capita GDP is less than the threshold value, the increase in per capita FDIwill reduce carbon dioxide emissions for the region, but once the region ’s per capita GDP isgreater than the threshold value, the increase in per capita FDI in the region will increase carbondioxide emissions. Meanwhile impact on the region ’s foreign trade volume per capita carbondioxide emissions per capita GDP due to different threshold impact in different directions. Whenthe region ’s per capita GDP is less than the threshold value, the increase in per capita foreign tradevolume will increase on regional carbon dioxide emissions, but once the region ’s per capita GDPis greater than the threshold value, the increase in per capita foreign trade volume will increaseregional carbon dioxide emissions. The influence of the threshold effect, the impact on the region’s foreign trade volume per capita carbon dioxide emissions per capita differs from the impact ofFDI on regional carbon dioxide emissions.Use of relevant data from the National total four angles, eastern, central and western regionof the1987-2011decomposition of carbon emission structure effect and technology effectdecomposition. National decomposition results, you can see the effects of structural effectstechnology and energy consumption of primary energy consumption intensity dynamic evolution ofthe contribution of the per capita carbon dioxide emissions.1987-2011annual average energyconsumption structure effect of carbon dioxide emissions per capita contribution of26.054%,while the average energy intensity effects technology for carbon dioxide emissions per capitacontribution of12.687%. Structural effects of primary energy consumption per capita carbondioxide emissions for the impact of significant technical effect is greater than the energy intensityof carbon dioxide emissions per capita impact. For technical effect of carbon dioxide emissions percapita contribution of the dynamic evolution of the eastern region of primary energy consumptionstructure effect and energy consumption intensity. Structural effects of energy consumption1987-2011annual average of the eastern region of carbon dioxide emissions per capita contributionof17.618%, while the average energy intensity effects technology for carbon dioxide emissionsper capita contribution of14.818%. Structural effects of primary energy consumption per capitacarbon dioxide emissions for the impact of technology is not significantly greater than the strengthof the effect of energy consumption per capita carbon dioxide emissions impact. For technicaleffect of carbon dioxide emissions per capita contribution of the dynamic evolution of the centralregion of the structure of primary energy consumption and energy intensity effects.1987-2011annual average energy consumption structure effect of carbon dioxide emissions per capitacontribution of28.885%, while the average energy intensity effects technology for carbon dioxideemissions per capita contribution of8.725%. Structural effects of primary energy consumption percapita carbon dioxide emissions for the impact of significant technical effect is greater than theenergy intensity of carbon dioxide emissions per capita impact. For technical effect of carbondioxide emissions per capita contribution of the dynamic evolution of the western region ’s primary energy consumption structure effect and energy consumption intensity.1987-2011annual averageenergy consumption structure effect of carbon dioxide emissions per capita contribution of28.737%, while the average energy intensity effects technology for carbon dioxide emissions percapita contribution of12.214%. Structural effects of primary energy consumption per capitacarbon dioxide emissions for the impact of significant technical effect is greater than the energyintensity of carbon dioxide emissions per capita impact.In this paper, through the establishment of a dynamic panel data model analysis and inspectionof the FDI, the impact on export trade and technical effects of carbon emission structure effectregion. The empirical results show that FDI, foreign trade structure effects of these two variableson regional carbon emissions, there were significant positive effect. FDI impact on the structure ofthe top five regional effects of carbon emission region are: Shanghai, Beijing, Jiangsu, Shandong,Guangdong. FDI impact on the structural effects of the lowest carbon emissions are five regions:Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, Fujian, Jiangxi and Hainan. Showing differences in the eastern, centraland western regions from the effects of FDI impact on the structure characteristics of carbonemissions regional perspective. The highest impact on the structure of foreign trade effects ofcarbon emissions are five regions: Guangdong, Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Shanghai, Fujian. Effect onthe structure of foreign trade carbon emissions lowest in five regions affected areas are: Ningxia,Qinghai, Xinjiang, Hainan, Jiangxi. From the effect of foreign trade on the structurecharacteristics of carbon emissions point of view also showed differences in regional eastern,central and western regions., The structural effects of carbon emissions in the western region isgreater than the technical effects, but FDI in the region, the West, foreign trade structure effectsof these two variables affect regional carbon emissions are far lower than the eastern region.Therefore, to further improve FDI, foreign trade structure effects of these two variables affectregional carbon emissions is in a favorable way the western region of carbon emissions reduced.FDI impact of the top five areas of technical effects of carbon emission regions are: Guangdong,Heilongjiang, Sichuan, Liaoning, Beijing. FDI impact of the minimum technical effect of carbonemissions are five regions: Xinjiang, Hainan, Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, Shanxi. Effect of foreigntrade carbon emissions technology areas affected are the top five regions: Heilongjiang, Hainan,Jiangsu, Yunnan and Zhejiang. Effect on the structure of foreign trade carbon emissions lowest infive regions affected areas are: Qinghai, Beijing, Henan, Shandong, Shaanxi. Compared to theeffect of carbon emissions on structural regions, FDI, regional differences in effects of foreigntrade on carbon emissions technology area is not obvious. Therefore, in order to further reduceregional carbon emissions, should be increased in all regions of FDI, the impact effect of foreigntrade on carbon emissions technology areas. |
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