Study On The Relationship Between Carbon Emissions,Industrial Structure And Economic Growth

The 40 years of reform and opening are not only the 40 years of continuous expansion of China's industrial volume,but also the continuous improvement of the industrial system.It is also the 40 years of continuous optimization and upgrading of the industrial structure.During this period,China's economy achieved rapid growth in the long run,and while acquiring a large amount of sufficient material wealth,it also created a Chinese miracle.The rapid development of the economy and society has not only significantly improved the people's living standards,but also enhanced the overall national strength and laid a new historical starting point for China's future development.However,this development must be accompanied by an increase in environmental pressure.As one of the major greenhouse gases for global climate change,carbon dioxide emissions have received widespread attention from humans.According to data from the International Energy Agency(IEA),the annual carbon dioxide emissions of global fossil fuels have increased to 36.3 billion tons in 2017,and China accounts for about one-third.In order to slow down the growth rate of carbon emissions,China proposes that by 2030,China's carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP will fall by 60%to 65%compared with 2005,and carbon emissions will reach a peak.This is not only a solemn commitment made by China to the international community,but also an inevitable choice for China to achieve sustainable development.Therefore,how to promote the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure,effectively reduce carbon dioxide emissions,and achieve long-term balanced and sustainable development of the three in the economic development has become a key proposition that needs to be solved urgently.In order to study the relationship between carbon emissions,industrial structure and economic growth in China,this paper first clarifies the background significance of the topic,focuses on the core issue of carbon emission reduction,and discusses the outstanding problems in China's economy,industry and environment in the past 40 years of reform and opening up from the perspective of the seven heterogeneous industries of the national economy.Secondly,it collects,sorts,classifies and summarizes the related research on the relationship between the three countries at home and abroad,explains related concepts such as carbon emissions,industrial structure and economic growth,and discusses the theory of sustainable development,decoupling theory,industrial structure optimization theory and low carbon.The introduction of economic theory lays the theoretical foundation for the later empirical research.Then,from the three perspectives of change trend,carbon emission decomposition effect and industry carbon emission change,the status quo of China's carbon emissions is introduced,and the descriptive analysis of China's industrial structure and economic growth status is carried out.In the analysis,it is found that since the reform and opening up,China's carbon emissions have shown an upward trend,and the carbon emission intensity has shown a downward trend;the industrial structure has gradually advanced,and the tertiary industry has occupied half of the economic aggregate;the economic aggregate continues to grow,and there is stability.Progress.Thirdly,a variety of measurement and statistical analysis methods are used to empirically study the relationship between the three:using the extended STIRPAT decomposition model to study the relationship between China's carbon emissions and industrial structure;constructing the Tapio index model for carbon emissions and economy in an industry The decoupling relationship between growth is analyzed;the grey relational analysis method is used to discuss the relationship between various industries and economic growth;the industrial structure advanced index is scientifically constructed,and the vector autoregressive model,cointegration analysis and error correction model are introduced.Granger causality test,impulse response and variance decomposition analysis explain the relationship between the three and explore the intrinsic relationship between the three.The results show that the impacts of various sectors of China's national economy on carbon emissions are different;compared with the economic development of various industries,China's control of carbon emissions is relatively reasonable;the relationship between various industries and economic growth is very close;carbon The increase in emissions will prompt a certain change in China's industrial structure;economic growth will promote the increase of carbon emissions;advanced industrial structure will promote economic growth.Finally,based on the above research conclusions,this paper puts forward some reasonable suggestions for the development of low-carbon economy in China from four aspects:optimizing the internal structure of the industry,promoting industrial transformation and upgrading,developing low-carbon energy-saving technology and perfecting the support policy of energy saving and emission reduction.In this paper,the relationship between China's carbon emission,industrial structure and economic growth is explored based on the view of heterogeneous industry,and it has a certain systematicness,comprehensiveness and representativeness.The main contribution and innovation point are as follows:First,according to the classification of the national economy industry,the industrial structure is divided more closely,and the STIRPAT decomposition model is expanded and applied to the industrial structure field,and the correlation between the carbon emission and the industrial structure is fully explained.Secondly,based on the value-added data of the seven industries of the national economy,the idea of vector included angle is used to measure the higher level of the industrial structure,and the industrial structure of our country can be better reflected With the continuous growth of the economy,the three industrial specific gravity along the first,second and third industries in the order of the changing process.