Demand Forecast And Supply Analysis Of Critical Mineral Required By New Energy Vehicles

The development of new energy vehicles is an important measure to alleviate the oil shortage,an effective way to reduce environmental pollution,and it is also the only way for China's automobile industry to improve its international competitiveness.China lists new energy vehicles as a strategic emerging industry and has issued a series of development plans and subsidy policies to provide a strong guarantee for the stable development of the new energy vehicle industry.The fundamental factor driving the development of the industry lies in whether the supply of raw materials can meet the needs of industrial development,so make a correct estimate and judgment on the demand for mineral resources required by new energy vehicles,in order to determine whether the supply of mineral resources can be met manufacturing needs are of great significance to the development of the industry and the rational use of mineral resources.First,based on the PEST scenario analysis method,this paper analyzes the political,economic,social,technological factors that affect the production of new energy vehicles.Based on setting three scenarios which are radical,reference,and negative,this paper predicts the output of every type of new energy vehicles in each scenario in 2030.According to the industrial development goals,laboratory theoretical research and development course of similar foreign products,the assembly scale of lithium batteries,permanent magnet motors and fuel cells in different types of new energy vehicles in 2030 is predicted.Combined with the amount of mineral resources in per battery capacity and per motor power,the demand for mineral resources of China's new energy vehicles will be predicted in 2030.The results indicate that the demand for lithium,cobalt,nickel,graphite,rare earth(praseodymium neodymium),rare earth(dysprosium)and platinum under the reference scenario is 757 thousand tons,138 thousand tons,1.094 million tons,1.102 million tons,221 thousand tons,0.12 million tons and 15 tons.Secondly,lithium,cobalt,nickel and platinum required by new energy vehicles are the shortage of minerals in China,they will not meet the needs of industrial development,and the acquisition of resources depends on imports.Based on the time series analysis and numerical evaluation model of the BGR-VM method,this paper quantitatively evaluates the above four minerals and identifies the main supply risk points.The results point out: Supply risk pointsare mainly concentrated in the high import dependence caused by strong domestic demand and low resource self-sufficiency.In addition,if the sources of imports are diversified,supply risks can be reduced.Rare earth and graphite are China's dominant minerals.The qualitative analysis of the two minerals' production,trade and global market position shows that the supply of the two will not restrict the development of new energy vehicles in the short to medium term.Finally,based on the above research results,this article puts forward several suggestions for the development of the new energy vehicle industry and the utilization of mineral resources.