Demand Analysis And Supply Risk Of Niobium Resources In China

Niobium is an important strategic new mineral,and it is called industrial monosodium glutamate.It is mainly used in high strength low alloy steel grade ferroniobium(HSLA),niobium chemicals,niobium alloys and niobium metals.China is the world’s largest consumer of niobium resources,but due to resource constraints,China has almost no niobium mineral resources available for economic development and utilization,and there is no economically viable alternative in the world,so the level of niobium resource security is low.With the upgrading of China’s iron and steel industry and the adjustment of products,as well as the rapid development of strategic emerging industries,the demand for niobium resources will continue to grow in the future,so it is extremely urgent to solve the problem of safe supply of niobium resources in China.First of all,this paper starts with the demand of niobium resources,and analyzes the main consumption areas of niobium resources in detail.this paper analyzes the main consumption areas of niobium resources in detail.By analyzing the consumption situation of various departments,it is concluded that the demand growth of niobium in China will slow down in the short term,but it will still maintain a rapid growth,a few countries hold limited niobium resources,and global consumers compete for limited niobium resources,so the supply of resources and Trade channels have become two key links.In the supply chain,through the analysis of reserves,production of niobium in mines and production of niobium resources in China,the risk factors are analyzed;in the trade chain,through the analysis of the main trade patterns in the world,the trade relationship between China and Brazil is close,and then the trade relationship between China and Congo and the supply instability factors in Brazil are analyzed separately.Then the pricing mechanism of niobium and the two recovery of niobium are discussed Analyze the risk factors of the whole trade link.Secondly,in the risk assessment research,from the perspective of the whole industry chain of niobium resources,find out the supply risk in the upstream,middle and downstream of the whole industry chain,select the indicators that have a greater impact on the supply risk and are easy to quantify.In this paper,entropy weight method is introduced to determine the weight of evaluation indexes,and the risk value of each index is analyzed quantitatively.Combined with the weight of evaluation indexes,the supply risk of niobium resources is calculated.Finally,through the demand analysis of all departments of niobium resources,it is found that the consumption of niobium resources will reach 29700 tons from 20200 tons in 2018 to 2025,with an average annual growth rate of 6.72%.Higher than the average growth rate of global niobium resources.The rapid growth of China’s demand for niobium resources will cause great pressure on the supply of niobium resources in China.The results of supply risk assessment show that the supply of niobium resources in China is in a high risk state for a long time.The main reasons for the long-term high supply risk are summarized;the high concentration of China’s import of niobium resources and mineral products,the lack of niobium resources and large demand in China,lead to a high degree of foreign dependence;the infrastructure of Brazil,the main resource country,is not perfect,the development of Railway,highway and port systems lags behind;the high concentration of mine production,The production areas and markets are oligopoly;the lack of pricing power increases supply risk due to price fluctuation;the instability of major resource countries brings adverse factors to supply risk.