Research On Multi-stage Fleet Configuration Of Product Oil Distribution Considering Long-term And Short-term Demand Characteristics

In the whole product oil supply chain,the secondary logistics distribution of product oil is located at the end of the supply chain.It is the core link for product oil enterprises to improve the efficiency of logistics distribution and reduce operating costs.As a kind of dangerous goods transportation business,the distribution of product oil puts forward strict requirements for the selection and operation of vehicles:the quality parameters and performance of oil tanker vehicles must meet the national standards.At the same time,vehicle license and dangerous chemicals permit and other related certificates must also be fully guaranteed,which makes the refined oil distribution vehicles have higher fixed investment and management operation costs than the general transportation vehicles.Therefore,the profitability of product oil enterprises depends largely on the effective planning and configuration of their own fleet,which is also an important guarantee for the successful completion of the secondary distribution task^[1].In order to reduce costs and increase efficiency,enterprises need to rationally planning fleet size,which is also the key to ensure the stability of oil distribution and profitability of enterprises.Reasonable allocation of product oil distribution fleet is demand-oriented,and there are certain uncertainties and fluctuations in demand.The fluctuation characteristics of oil demand have different rules because of the different range of long-term and short-term and the influence of different factors.Based on this,this study proposes a multi-stage fleet configuration scheme for product oil distribution considering the characteristics of long-term and short-term demand,which combines the long-term trend of demand with the characteristics of short-term fluctuation.It includes both the determination of the size of the fleet and the adjustment of the capacity of the rental vehicle.In view of the characteristics and difficulties of this problem,this paper carries out the following four aspects of research work:?1?Analysis of the characteristics and difficulties of product oil distribution fleet configuration considering long-term and short-term demand characteristics.Firstly,the background of the problem is elaborated.Then,the characteristics of the problem,such as different long-term and short-term demand characteristics,various vehicle fleet allocation modes,numerous cost elements,and the complexity of solution are analyzed in depth.Finally,the overall solution of the problem is outlined.?2?The analysis of long-term and short-term demand characteristics of oil products and the method of pattern division.The fluctuation characteristics of the collected historical sales data of product oil products are analyzed and extracted,and the prediction model is used to fit and characterize the demand for oil products,and the better model is selected to predict the fitting effect among different models.At the same time,the membership function method in the fuzzy set is applied to divide the demand pattern preliminarily,and the demand change rate is used to adjust the demand pattern.?3?Constructing a multi-stage fleet configuration model of product oil distribution considering the characteristics of long-term and short-term demand.According to the obtained oil demand model,the multi-stage fleet configuration integer programming model of product oil distribution is constructed by dividing the time interval.?4?The numerical experiment and result analysis based on R language and CPLEX.The R language is used to construct the demand forecasting model and fit the data.The CPLEX solver is used to solve the multi-stage fleet configuration integer programming model and the two reference models.The validity of the proposed model and the algorithm is verified.This study can provide decision support for the planning of actual product oil distribution fleet,and has a certain reference for similar logistics distribution problems.This study can provide decision support for the planning of actual product oil distribution fleet,and has certain inspiration and reference significance for similar transportation equipment resource allocation problems,such as:airline fleet composition decision-making,maritime fleet configuration and so on.