Optimization Analysis And Study On Heat Consumption Index Model Of Office Buildings In Beijing Area

In the northern areas in China,winter heating is very important to people's livelihood.With the high speed of urbanization in recent years,the central heating was more and more used.In the of central heating,the heat load of the region is the important basic data.Area of heat index is the most commonly used method in the planning and design stage to determine the heat load of the region,the design with hot index values still reference specifications for design of urban heating pipe network(CJJ34-2010),the design specification about the heating of the heat index recommended value has not been updated.With the development of China's building energy efficiency and promote the way of heating metering,the index is no longer in use.A large number of practical engineering shows that the used heating heat index value for many years was too large,lead to a design projects higher investment scale,more unreasonable matching heating equipment used,heat transmission pipeline diameter is too large,the heating power station actual load is far less than expected load design,make the heating system run in inefficient condition.Therefore,heat index optimization analysis and research of district heating planning has an important role.The study of heating index in our country are mainly concentrated in the 1990s,the research results from current building energy efficiency development relative lag,combined with regional load forecasting methods at home and abroad,this paper office buildings in Beijing area as the research object,to research the history of 40 office building heat consumption data and building information as the foundation,adopts the method of statistical regression model to build office buildings in Beijing heat consumption index model to guide the district heating planning stage area heat load is determined.Main work includes:Classifying related fields statistics research methods which applied,combining with the characteristics of heat consumption index of office building,choose the most appropriate research methods.In Beijing office buildings heating period operation heat consumption index and information research,find out the influence factors of heat consumption indext hrough the analysis of research data information statistical description and quantitative values,and lay the foundation for establishing a model.Research on heat consumption index and various factors influencing the correlation analysis to find out the significant influencing factors,the method of using multiple linear regression to carry on the experimental matching,test for multicollincarity test was carried out on the influence factors due to the problems in the process of fitting.In view of the multicollinearity problem between influence factors,respectively by the methods of stepwise regression,principal component regression and partial least-squares regression method to establish model.Through statistical testing,the results show that the three models are better goodness-of-fit,can explain more than 77%of the country's overall variation,and the model could give a precision prediction.From two aspects of goodness-of-fit and prediction accuracy of analyzing and comparing three kinds of model,according to the numerical results validate samples,to determine the partial least-squares regression model for the optimal model.And this model predicts an office building in Beijing heating period heating heat indicator.The application of the model of regional central heating planning stage to determine heat load has a certain reference function.