Suitability Evaluation Of Virtual Water Strategy In Heihe River Basin

Water is the key factor to restrict the development of social economy and the quality of natural environment in arid area.Applying the concept of "virtual water strategy",and aiming at the rapid urbanization speed of the Heihe River Basin in the northwest of China and the intensified contradictions between the water-eco-social and economic composite systems,this paper constructs a virtual water strategy suitability evaluation system in the Heihe River Basin from the perspective of coordinated development of the composite system.And the entropy method was used to weigh the first index layer and the second index factor,and the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method was used to evaluate and analyze the suitability of virtual water strategy in the Heihe River Basin,and the pertinent suggestions for water resources management were put forward.The main conclusions of this study were as follows:(1)The virtual water strategy suitability evaluation system in Heihe River Basin was constructed.Through the qualitative and correlation analysis of the factors affecting the suitability of virtual water strategy,the evaluation index system of virtual water strategy suitability was constructed,which includes 5 first-level index layers and 19 second-level index factors.And the relationship between each index factor and the suitability of the implementation of virtual water strategy was analyzed.(2)The entropy method is chosen as the index weighting method and the first and second indexes of virtual water strategy suitability were weighted separately.The results show that the weights of the first-level indicators of suitability for the implementation of virtual water strategy are in the following order:resource endowment condition>social adjustment ability>level of economic development>level of technology&terms of traffic and trade>level of ecological environment;The influencing factors of the highest weights under each index layer are in the following:available per capita water resources,Engel coefficient,food self-sufficiency rate,industrial technology efficiency,ecological water use ratio.The results indicate that,for the decision makers of water resources management,the factors affecting efficiency and adaptability should be considered as well as the basic conditions of water and and soil resources.(3)A fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model of strategic suitability for virtual water was constructed to evaluate the strategic suitability of virtual water in the Heihe River Basin and analyze its spatial distribution.The results showed that the suitability grades of Qilian and other five districts and counties in the study area were all grade 1,the suitability of Sunan County is in the grade ?,the suitability grade of Gaotai County and other 4 districts and counties is in the grade ?,and the suitability grade of Jinta County is in the grade V.The virtual water strategy in the Heihe River Basin is generally more appropriate.The spatial distribution analysis of suitability grades shows that the most suitable area for the implementation of virtual water strategy in the Heihe River Basin,such as Qilian County,is located in the upper and middle reaches of the basin.