Research On The Evolution Mechanism And Early Warning Simulation System For Airport Foreign Object Debris Risks

At present,with the rapid rising of civil aviation transportation industry,the industry’s size is expanding quickly,which puts forward higher requirements to the improvements of airport security level.Airport Foreign Object Debris(FOD)security,an important part of the airport flying area security,is the basic premise for aircraft’s normal takeoffs and transports,and it’s the basic guarantee for passengers,cargos,equipments and facilities related to security.Airport FOD accidents,unsafe events or incidents,have the characteristics of high hazard,high speed and harmfulness of occurrences.Seriously it can cause casualties,and slightly it can bring huge economic losses,like damages to airport staffs,aircrafts and airport facilities.Therefore,taken Airport FOD risks as a research object,the risk evolution mechanism of Airport FOD is studied,and a risk evolution mechanism model of Airport FOD is constructed.Combined with IT technology,the final early warning simulation model of Airport FOD risks system is designed.On the one hand,the system can deal with the real-time early warming and forecasting early warming of Airport FOD risks;on the other hand,the research on the key risk routes and fluctuant risk routes of the Airport FOD risk evolution is of great significance to the early warning of Airport FOD risks.This thesis consists of six parts.The first part is an introduction,mainly introduces the background,clarifies the purpose and significance of the study,and makes the content and research methods of the study clear based on the relevant research status at home and abroad.In the second part,after knowing the basic knowledge of Airport FOD and Airport FOD risks,combined with the research and interview results,the Airport FOD risk factors are explored based on the grounded theory;the hierarchical structure of the risk factors is clarified.In the third part,the leading factors in the Airport FOD risk factors are singled out by using Delphi method;based on system dynamics,a risk evolution model of Airport FOD is constructed.In the fourth part,combined the qualitative analysis of risk evolution mechanism with the dynamic simulation system,after using Analytic Hierarchy Process method to determine weights,the quantitative analysis of risk evolution mechanism is studied;the risk early warning of Airport FOD is simulated;the key risk routes and fluctuant risk routes of the risk evolution are discussed.In the fifth part,the users,business processes and functions of the Airport FOD risk early warming simulation system are analyzed;combined with object-oriented structured design,the Airport FOD risk early warning simulation system’s architecture and functions are designed.In the sixth part,on the basis summary of the thesis,the main innovations and limitations of this study are concluded,and the outlook of the Airport FOD risk early warning simulation system in the future is prospected.