Research On The Influencing Factors And Development Strategies Of Shrinking County Towns In Shandong Provinc

As China’s urbanization process enters the second half,the phenomenon of urban shrinkage has gradually increased.Identifying shrinking county towns,analyzing the influencing factors of the shrinkage of county towns and proposing development countermeasures are of great significance for the high-quality development of new urbanization in the new era and promoting nearby urbanization with county towns as the carrier.Taking the county towns of Shandong Province as the research object,this thesis first proposes the connotation of the shrinkage of county towns from the two levels of dimension and continuity of shrinkage,and uses socio-economic data and remote sensing image data to identify shrinking county towns in Shandong Province from three dimensions:population size,economic aggregate,and spatial vitality.Secondly,from the perspectives of the population attraction and economic attractiveness of county towns,the influencing factors of the shrinkage of county towns in Shandong Province were qualitatively analyzed.Then,on the basis of qualitative analysis,the influencing factors are integrated,and the dominant influencing factors of the shrinkage of county towns in Shandong Province are quantitatively analyzed by binary logistics regression model.Finally,drawing on the coping strategies of shrinking cities with different backgrounds and ideas in Japan,the United States and Germany,the development countermeasures of shrinking county towns in Shandong Province are proposed from four aspects:policy adjustment,economic industry,service facilities and the construction of county town.The results show that from 2015 to 2020,there were 13 shrinking county towns in Shandong Province,most of which were single-dimensional shrinkage,and there was no largescale county town shrinkage,which was mainly distributed in the northwest plain of Shandong.From the perspective of population,population structure and population agglomeration capacity of county towns affect the population growth momentum of county towns.The living standards,public service supply and infrastructure construction affect the population attractiveness of county towns.From an economic point of view,transportation location,economic location,planning location,economic development level and government investment are important factors for the shrinkage of county towns.Through quantitative analysis,it is further found that the leading factors of the shrinkage of county towns in Shandong Province are four factors:economic aggregate,public service level,service industry development status and government investment level,of which public service level has the greatest impact.Summarizing the foreign experience of shrinking cities through cases analysis,Utsunomiya in Japan adopts the strategy of promoting compact layout and enhancing the attractiveness of life in planning,Buffalo in the United States imports service facilities to promote urban industrial transformation and upgrading,and Magdeburg in Germany takes shrinkage as an opportunity,and advocates multisubject renewal to improve urban operation efficiency.Combined with the actual development situation,it is suggested that in the future development of shrinking county towns in Shandong Province,in the construction of service facilities,improve the service level to slow down the loss of population;in the spatial layout of the county town,a compact layout is implemented to improve the quality of the space;at the aspect of land use,reduce incremental expansion and accelerate the redevelopment of stock;in terms of industrial development,cultivate industrial characteristics and actively integrate into the group.