Calculation And Optimization Of Anchorage Demand In Cengang Port Area Based On Queuing Theory

With the rapid and stable development of China's shipping industry,the throughput of various ports has reached record highs.Ningbo Zhoushan Port,as the world's five largest ports and China's three major ports,has maintained its leading position in the world,and the number of ships arriving in each port area has also been repeated.Growth,insufficient anchorage resources,low utilization rate,and delayed development of anchorage development not only restrict the development of the port,but also pose a certain threat to the anchoring safety of the anchoring ship.Therefore,through the calculation and optimization of the anchorage demand,the condition of the anchorage resources,the degree of utilization and the rationality of the anchorage planning can be analyzed.First of all,this paper conducts a port-based analysis of the Dagang Port Area of Zhoushan Port in Ningbo,sorts out the basic situation of the port area,statistically classifies the traffic volume of the port area in recent years,and analyzes the current status of the anchorage in the port area.According to the development trend of the port area,the irrationality of the distribution of anchorage resources is analyzed,and the necessity of anchorage analysis in Dagang Port Area is proposed.Secondly,this paper summarizes the queuing theory for the calculation of anchorage resources in the port area,and expounds the basic characteristics of the queuing system,the parameters involved in the queuing system and the calculation form of the queuing problem.Based on the basic queuing theory model,it is adjusted from three aspects: input process,queuing service rule and service mode,so as to establish a queuing model suitable for ship-to-port mooring.According to the queuing model of ship-to-port mooring,the calculation method of optimal anchor number is enumerated from the aspects of parameter selection and conversion and index calculation.Thirdly,in order to obtain more applicable anchorage resources,this paper forecasts the future arrivals of ships,so an optimized inbound ship prediction model is established.For the summary of prediction method types,basic principles ofprediction,basic steps and common prediction methods,this paper focuses on the gray prediction,Markov prediction and exponential smoothing prediction,and analyzes their applicable types and characteristics.Based on the three prediction methods,an optimized prediction model suitable for the arrival of ships is established.The accuracy of the model is verified according to the actual arrival volume of the Dagang port area,and the model availability is obtained.Finally,this paper classifies and analyzes the current status of inbound ships in Dagang Port Area in recent years,and predicts the quantity of ships arriving in port area in the future based on the established forecasting model,and statistics on the current and future arrivals of ships in the port area.Based on the queuing theory model,the current anchor demand and future anchor demand are calculated respectively.It is reasonable to analyze the distribution of anchorage resources.Finally,the anchorage resources of the port area are optimized and distributed,and the planning of Ningbo Zhoushan Port is analyzed to obtain reasonable distribution.