Research On Investment Return And Risk Of Photovoltaic Power Generation Projects Driven By Complex Factors

With the shortage of fossil energy and the increasing pressure of environmental pollution control,photovoltaic power industry has developed rapidly with its advantages of clean and pollution-free,rich resources and reserves.However,in the process of development,it has the uncertainty and instability.For the power generation system,the photovoltaic conversion efficiency is also different;for the external environment,there are uncertainties in environmental factors,market factors and policy factors.So it brings difficulties for the measurement of return and risk.In order to solve this problem,this paper puts forward the idea of investment returns and risk under complex driving factors,combining the research results of domestic and foreign scholars on investment returns and investment risks.With the tools of interpretive structure model and system dynamics model,the investment return is simulated and analyzed.Considering the uncertainty of complex driving factors,the investment risk is evaluated by Monte Carlo,which provides more valuable basis for investment decision-making of photovoltaic power generation projects.In the analysis of investment returns,firstly,from the internal and external factors,this paper studies the factors affecting the investment benefits of photovoltaic power generation system.Using the interpretive structure model,this paper divides the influencing factors hierarchically and determines the driving factors.On this basis,the paper constructs the investment return model using the system systematics.The qualitative and quantitative relationships are sorted out by causality diagram and system flow diagram.Taking a 35 MW photovoltaic project in Hainan as an example,the future investment return is simulated.There is certain investment risk because of the fluctuate.In the analysis of investment risk,based on the Monte Carlo,selecting the driving factors as risk factors,the paper establishes probability distribution.With Crystal Ball software,by setting the simulation times,parameters and variables,the expectation,variance,probability density function of return are obtained.The sensitivity of project risk factors is analyzed.According to the results,we put forward the investment decision-making suggestions to improve the investment efficiency and promote the future development of photovoltaic power generation enterprises.