| Water is the foundation of life and a very important resource.In recent decades,the society has developed rapidly,the population has been increasing,the industrial scale has grown rapidly,the demand for water resources has continued to increase,and the problem of water pollution has become increasingly serious.With the development of the economy and the deterioration of the ecological environment,water resources have become an important factor restricting social development.Based on the analysis of the research status of water resources optimization allocation and water resources carrying capacity evaluation at home and abroad,according to the actual situation of Shenmu City,based on the domestic water resources evaluation and water demand forecast results,the water resources have been optimized and configured.Based on the results of the optimal configuration,the water resources carrying capacity evaluation and analysis are carried out,and suggestions for improving the water resources carrying capacity are proposed.(1)Based on the evaluation of water resources and availability of Shenmu City and the prediction of water demand in near and long term,the balance analysis of water supply and demand and optimal allocation by using the ditch domain as a unit.The results show that Shenmu City is seriously short of water in the near and long term,only part of the ditch area can meet the balance of supply and demand.Through the deployment of overseas water diversion projects and the optimal allocation of water resources at home and abroad,the water supply in Shenmu City can be rationally distributed.The results show that Shenmu City has residual water in the near and long term,and each ditch area can meet the water demand.The optimal allocation of water resources in Shenmu City enables the rational development and utilization of domestic and foreign water resources.(2)The principal component analysis method,the quota trend method and the water use index method were used to evaluate the water resources carrying capacity of Shenmu City.12 evaluation indicators were selected to construct the evaluation index system of principal component analysis.The qualitative analysis was carried out on the water resources carrying capacity of Shenmu City from 2012 to 2016.The results show that the water resources carrying capacity of Shenmu City is Grade III for five years(Unsaturated state of water resources carrying capacity),it indicates that the water resources carrying capacity is better,but it has a tendency to gradually deteriorate.The evaluation results of this method provide the basis for the evaluation of near and long term bearing capacity.(3)For the short-term and long-term water demand,the quota trend method and the water use index method are used for quantitative analysis.The quota trend method selects the population load and the population forecast to characterize the carrying capacity,the water use index method selects the total water use and water use indicators to characterize.Based on two scenarios of planning water demand and deep water saving,the water resources carrying capacity evaluation and analysis are carried out for the two types of water supply from the production of water(water supply for domestic water resources)and external water transfer.The water resources carrying capacity of Shenmu City in the near and long term has been overloaded,among them,the water resources carrying capacity of the Kaokaowusu Ditch,the midstream of Kuye River,the Yaozhen Reservoir and the midstream of Tuwei River are poor.The water resources carrying capacity after overseas water transfer and its optimal allocation have been significantly improved.The city is generally not overloaded,but the carrying capacity of the midstream of Kuye River and the Yaozhen Reservoir is slightly worse,and there is still overload.The evaluation results of water resources carrying capacity of Shenmu City can provide support for the rational development and utilization of water resources. |
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