The Progressive Price Increase Scheme For Non-resident Water Consumption In Dalian

With the continuous development of social economy in China,the shortage of water resources is becoming more and more prominent.It is of great significance to strengthen the planned water management of users,especially non-residents,to promote urban water saving and alleviate the contradiction between water supply and water demand.The key issues of non-resident planned water management is how to make a reasonable water consumption plan and how to formulate a reasonable cumulative fare increase strategy for super-planned water use.In order to improve the effective management of non-resident’s water consumption plan and promote the urban water-saving restraint mechanism,this paper takes Dalian city as an example to carry out the study of non-resident water use prediction and the progressive price increase scheme for non-resident water consumption beyond the plan.The main research contents and achievements are as follows:(1)Aiming at the prediction of water use by non-residents,firstly,the comprehensive autoregressive sliding average ARIMA model is proposed to predict the water use of single-user and one sector.Secondly,based on the analysis of the pattern of water use for different sectors,as well as the relationship between the water use of each sector and the total water quantity,the critical sectors are identified.Lastly,the multivariate time series ARIMAX model was constructed to predict the total non-resident water consumption.The results show that the prediction accuracy of water use based on the proposed method is significantly higher than that of the existing weighted average method.(2)This paper puts forward the method to determine the price increase strategy for non-resident water consumption beyond the plan.The water price elasticity and the water saving effect under different progressive price markup schemes are investigated based on the demand price elasticity theory.With the goal of maximizing the water saving,and considering the proportion of water users that the increase of water charges after raising the price meets the cost of water balance test and the technical transformation,as well as the user’s ability to bear the price,etc.The results show that the water price has a significant impact on water demand,the progressive price increase scheme for the non-resident water consumption beyond the plan is determined.