Dynamic Simulation And Prediction Of Water Ecological Footprint In Guizhou Based On ARIMA Model

Research objective:The development of social and economic,people's living standards improve,without the sustainable using of water resources.However,the rainy Guizhou is facing the problem of water shortage.The utilization rate of water resources is only 10%,less than half the national average;per capita water supply accounted for only 263 m~3,per capita water supply 58%.Water resources have become the bottleneck restricting the development of social and economy.Based on the water resources ecological footprint model,the ARIMA model,dynamic analysis and prediction of ecological footprint of water resources and the utilization efficiency of water resources sustainable development status and trend of water resources,and provide a theoretical basis for sustainable utilization of water resources.Research contents:The measurement and dynamic analysis of water resources per capita ecological footprint,per capita ecological carrying capacity,ecological deficit per capita,water resource utilization efficiency from 2000 to 2015;combined with the ARIMA model,2000-2015 per capita ecological footprint of water resources as the research object,selection of fitting model ARIMA,and forecasts 2016 and2017 of water resources ecological footprint per capita,the utilization efficiency of water resources.Research results:The total ecological footprint of water resources in Guizhou Province increased continuously from 2000 to 2015,and increased from 0.42 hm~2 in2000 to 0.66 hm~2 in 2015,a total increase of 57%.The per capita ecological surplus of water resources in Guizhou Province indicated that the water resources showed a sustainable development state.The ARIMA model was used to fit and forecast the per capita ecological footprint and water use efficiency of Guizhou Province.The results showed that the water resources utilization rate of 2016 and 2017.The per capita ecological footprint will continue to rise,and the efficiency of water use will be reduced.Indicating that the sustainable use of water resources in the future,the future pressure will continue to increase,but still affordable;in water use efficiency,the future slowdown in water use efficiency growth,or even lower efficiency.