Prediction Of Passenger Transfer Flow At Dalian North Railway Station Complex Analysis Of Rationality Of Transfer

With the large-scale construction of high-speed railway in our country,Baidu has gradually become a key link and an important part of the urban passenger transport system.The rapid development of the concepts of "traffic complex" and "integrated transfer" has promoted the gradual transformation of traditional hubs into new ones.The main function of the comprehensive hub is to achieve efficient transfer.Reasonable transfer mode can shorten the stay time of passengers in the hub and improve the transfer quality of passengers.From passenger flow forecasting to rationality analysis,this paper puts forward a complete set of analysis theory,which has strong practical guiding significance.Firstly,this paper outlines the definition and function of the high-speed rail complex hub,analyses the passenger flow composition of the high-speed rail Dalian North Station complex hub,and concludes three structures of passenger flow:transfer between external traffic,transfer between external traffic and urban traffic,and transfer between domestic traffic.Three main factors affecting passenger transfer behavior are analyzed and summarized:passenger individual factors,traffic mode characteristics and the impact of transfer facilities.Secondly,the common forecasting methods are analyzed,and the grey Markov model for background value optimization is constructed,and the validity of the model is verified by an example.Combined with the conventional forecasting method,the total passenger flow of Dalian North Railway Station is reasonably forecasted.Thirdly,the characteristics of the three transfer structures are analyzed:the transfer between external traffic belongs to long-distance transfer,and the transfer volume between them is mainly affected by the economic,population and school distribution within the reachable range of external traffic modes.Considering the influence of three factors comprehensively,the transfer demand formula is put forward,and the transfer ratio is calculated;the transfer between external traffic and urban traffic.Similar to the stage of traffic mode division in four stages of traffic,MNL model is introduced to calculate the transfer sharing ratio between external traffic and urban traffic;the transfer between urban traffic is similar to the stage of traffic distribution in four stages of traffic,gravity model is introduced to construct generalized time impedance,and the model is solved by TransCAD software;the three parts of passenger flow are integrated to get high-speed railway.Changing Passenger Flow of Dalian North Railway Station Complex Hub.Finally,according to the construction principle of the index of reasonableness judgment,combined with the transfer target of the comprehensive hub,the index system of reasonableness comprehensive judgment is constructed,and the weight of the index system is determined by using the 1?9 scale method of AHP;using the transformation theory of cloud model,the index value of judgment is converted into the digital characteristics of cloud model,which is input into the cloud model generator,output the comprehensive judgment cloud map,and through similarity.By comparison,the reasonable transfer conclusion of Dalian North Railway Station comprehensive hub is obtained.Running on the principle of "better",this paper analyses the three indicators of the criterion layer,and gives some suggestions based on the analysis results.