Research On The Risk Of Transportation Infrastructure Projects With The Participation Of Social Capital

With the deepening of Economic Reform and open up,the process of urbanization is accelerating,and the problem of imperfect transportation infrastructure is increasingly prominent.In the traditional mode,the government is responsible for the investment,construction and operation of the transportation infrastructure projects.However,with the social progress and industrial development,the government departments are faced with such problems as the shortage of financial funds and management experience.Therefore,the introduction of social capital has become the inevitable choice of China's transportation infrastructure projects.The participation model of social capital is the Public-Private Partnership model of China(hereinafter referred to as PPP mode)which can well mobilize idle market funds to participate in the construction of public services and escort the smooth implementation of projects.However,it is also faced with many project participants,long project cycle,and complex potential risk factors(influenced by internal characteristics such as large investment in transportation infrastructure projects and strong public welfare,as well as external environment such as macro politics,economy and law).In order to ensure the smooth implementation of PPP projects of transportation infrastructure and promote the development of PPP models in the field of transportation infrastructure,it is imperative to conduct systematic and comprehensive research on the risks of PPP projects of transportation infrastructure.This paper carries out research in four aspects: theoretical analysis,risk identification,risk assessment and project practice:In the theoretical analysis,this paper analyzes the main functions,organizational structure,characteristics and economic attributes of PPP model,and probes into the feasibility and research focus of PPP model in the field of transportation infrastructure.At the same time,the management theory of project risk is summarized to lay a theoretical foundation for the paper.In the risk identification,through literature review and specific projects of the ministry of finance,the preliminary risk list(39 risks)of PPP projects of transportation infrastructure is identified.Then,by means of expert scoring and risk matrix,non-key risks and redundant risks are removed from the frequency of risk occurrence and the importance of impact,and the final risk list(22 risks)is formed to ensure the effectiveness of risk management.At the same time,the risk assessment index system of PPP project of transportation infrastructure is constructed from macro and micro levels.In the risk assessment,the Analytic Network Process(ANP)was improved by Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory Technique(DEMATEL).On the basis of the final risk list,the advantages of DEMATEL method are utilized to determine the internal relations among the risks in the final risk list,so as to improve the rationality of the network hierarchy model.Secondly,the ANP method is used to determine the risk weight and evaluate the risk,which makes the risk assessment of PPP projects of transportation infrastructure more scientific,objective and reasonable.In the project practice,based on the final risk list and the improved ANP method,the risk analysis of the PPP project of dongying shugang railway was conducted,the risk status of the project was systematically evaluated,and the risk weight was determined.Besides,the risk is divided into ABC category by the Pareto Diagram,which helps the project participants of the PPP project of dongying shuang railway to better prevent and manage the risks.