Evaluation Of Incremental Cost Risk Of Green Building Based On System Dynamics

With the rapid development of urbanization,the increasingly serious environmental pollution and energy shortage problem,a larger proportion of energy intensive construction in this problem,need innovation to upgrade,low carbon,energy saving,environmental protection concept of green building,not only can solve the problem of environment and energy,also can provide a healthy and comfortable living environment,mankind should vigorously promote green building.But the development of green architecture in our country starts late,imperfect relevant policies,market environment is not stable,high technical requirements and costs big factors in the construction process of cost increase at the same time,there is more risk of uncertainty,and developers lack of full scientific the incremental cost of risk identification,assessment and response,high cost of inputs,not obvious economic benefits,leading to green building developers investment enthusiasm is not high,seriously hindered the development of green building.Therefore,this paper,based on the perspective of developers,establishes a comprehensive and reasonable incremental cost risk index and conducts a scientific and accurate incremental cost risk assessment,which has relatively important theoretical significance and practical value for promoting green buildings.Paper through the analysis and induction,this paper summarizes the current research status at home and abroad,to determine the green building incremental cost risk assessment research direction,in the introduction of green building incremental cost risk,on the basis of relevant theories,try to use the work breakdown structure method and scenario analysis method from the perspective of life cycle comprehensive identification green building incremental cost risk,establish a preliminary list of risk,through the interpretation of likert scale increases the levels of risk and improvement of the not clear option,incremental cost risk factors,screening,to determine the final risk index system.Secondly,using the improved system to build dynamic incremental cost risk evaluation model,the relationships can be divided into the risk,the risk weighting empowerment and risk simulation three phases,the first stage: to draw causal loop diagram,determine therelationship between each risk,on the basis of the causal loop diagram to build inventory flow chart,analysis the risk accumulation effect and rate of change,to determine the boundary risk;The second stage: compare and analyze the characteristics and shortcomings of various risk weighting methods,choose G1 method to determine the subjective weight,entropy weight method to determine the objective weight,based on the game theory method for the optimal weight combination,determine the final weight;The third stage: using Vensim＿PLE software simulation,the risk factors of assignment and the relationship between the input to the simulation software,to analyze the output,given the radar map expression effect is more intuitive and clear,the result input to the radar map,it is concluded that the green building at various stages in whole life cycle of the main incremental cost risk,countermeasures are put forward based on the main risk.Finally,take Hongshun guandi phase ii residential area as an example to calculate and analyze the model and verify the feasibility of the model.The results show that the model is scientific and reasonable,providing a reference for the study of green building incremental cost risk.