Study On Life-Cycle Incremental Cost Risks Of Green Building

High energy consumption and environmental pollution in the construction industry are increasingly serious, and the green building is an important way to solve this problem. The idea of green building is to build a harmonious development of environment, improve energy efficiency, and provide people with a comfortable indoor and outdoor living space. The development of green building in our country is still in the initial stage, the related policy, market and technology development of green building is not mature enough, there are still many uncertainties in the development of green building. Because of the unique nature of green architecture, there is a large incremental cost investment compared with the traditional residential, real estate enterprises have no clear understanding and effective control measures for the risk factors of incremental costs, affect the enthusiasm of its investment and restricted the promotion of china's green building. How to recognize the green building life-cycle increment cost risk, have important theoretical significance and practical value for the incremental cost of green building risk management.According to literature research method, summarized the research status and results in the field of green building, the incremental cost of green building and green building risk management, founded the current research of incremental cost risk is still lacking,which determined the research direction of the paper. Through life-cycle theory divided green building into five phrases: decision-making phrase, design phrase, construction phrase, operation and maintenance phase, demolition recycling phrase, combined with the risk and risk management theory, the incremental cost and risk of green building is defined, and expand the traditional two-dimensional risk attributes to four-dimensional(probability, loss, controllability, urgency). According to the domestic and foreign related literature, combined with the structure of incremental cost of green building, combing incremental cost risk factors in each phrase of green building, 23 risk factors were identified, and through the optimization of Delphi, built life-cycle incremental cost risk list of green building which include 22 risk factors and explained impact of each risk factors to the incremental costs. Based on the literature at domestic and international, analyzed the characteristics of the incremental cost of green building risk assessment and compared evaluation methods, paper selected analytic hierarchy process and comprehensive evaluation method which based on intuitionist triangular fuzzy numbers to evaluate life-cycle incremental cost risk of green building, described the principles and evaluation steps, and put forward the related risk coping strategies. Finally, the article combined with the actual case of incremental risk identification and evaluation, and obtained the priority sort of incremental cost risk of the project, put forward concrete measure of incremental risk factors according to the actual situation of enterprises.Through the research of life-cycle cost increment risk of green building, identified risk factors in each stage of the green building which affects the cost of incremental, then built the risk evaluation model and given the corresponding risk coping strategies, which have advantages to incremental cost control of green building, enhancing the comprehensive benefits, promoting the development of green building.