Research On Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Of Ship Navigation Environment Safety In Binzhou Port

Due to the rapid development of China's economy,import and export trade is continuously increasing.Binzhou port is close to Bohai Bay.With the continuous development of the economic hinterland city of Binzhou port,the transportation capacity of Binzhou port and the navigational safety of ships in and out of the port are facing tough challenges.The number and tonnage of ships are becoming larger and larger,and the density and navigational environment of the traditional traffic flow in the port and its adjacent waters are becoming more and more complex,which to some extent increases the probability of accidents in the waters and the transportation energy of Binzhou port.In order to strengthen the navigational safety&reduce the traffic accidents of ships in the water area and to better serve the development of regional economy,this thesis evaluates the water traffic safety risk in Binzhou port.The factors affecting the safety risk of the navigation environment in Binzhou port are comprehensively analyzed,an evaluation system based on the influence degree of the above-mentioned factors on accidents in the jurisdiction is established and verified through expert investigation;Based on the analysis of he navigation environment statistical data in Binzhou port and combined with the research results of domestic and foreign scholars in the field of water traffic safety risk assessment,the risk evaluation standard is set;Through qualitative and quantitative analysis of each index,its membership function is formed,and one single factor fuzzy evaluation model is established;The weight of each index is calculated with the method of analytic hierarchy process.Combined with the weight of each index,the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is used to evaluate the navigation environment safety risk in Binzhou port.Finally,the conclusion is to provide the reference countermeasures and suggestions for the safety management in the jurisdiction.In this thesis,4 first-class indexes and 11 second-class indexes affecting the evaluation of the navigation environment safety risk in Binzhou port are finally determined.The weight of each index is calculated by AHP.The assessment of the navigation environment safety risk in Binzhou port is conducted with the method of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation,and the current level of the navigation environment safety in Binzhou port is between relatively safe and critical.Through the study of safety evaluation,the risk situation of relevant factors in Binzhou port waters is better mastered,and the reference is provided for relevant departments to improve the navigation management level and the preventive measures.