System-wide Comprehensive Risk Assessment Of The Water Supply System In A District Of A City In South China

Urban water supply system is an important part of urban development planning and plays an extremely important role in ensuring people's life and production and economic development.At the same time,the urban water supply system is vulnerable to many risks,such as system accidents,vandalism and natural disasters,which is due to the characteristics of urban water supply system,such as system,complexity and openness.Once the urban water supply system is threatened by these risks,it will have a serious impact on residents'lives,health and socio-economic development.Therefore,it is very important to identify and analyze the whole process risk of water supply system from the source to the leader and to evaluate the risk further.It is also of great significance to improve the management efficiency of its water supply enterprises,guide urban risk management,to optimize operation and to ensure safe water use.In this paper,the risk assessment model of urban water supply system based on fuzzy analytic hierarchy process?FAHP?is adopted based on the theory of hierarchy analysis,triangular fuzzy number and fuzzy synthesis theory.Based on the comprehensive analysis of water resources composition,water quality status,infrastructure,water supply,production and operation management in a District of a City in South China,the present situation and potential risk factors of water supply system were found out,23 risk factors were selected,and a risk hierarchy index system was established.Based on the established risk assessment model,the whole process water supply system in this area is studied.After further analysis of the evaluation results of water supply system risk index factors,it is found that 7 risk factor indicators exceed the average risk weight.On the basis of the risk weight of each level,the probability of low risk,low risk,medium risk,high risk and high risk of water supply system in a certain district of a city in the south is 7.64%,32.32%,37.65%,18.06%and 4.33%respectively.According to the principle of maximum membership degree,it can be seen that the risk of water supply system in a certain district of southern city belongs to the t₃grade,and its risk assessment is grade?and medium risk grade.According to the risk acceptance criteria,the medium risk is the acceptable risk range,but the appropriate risk prevention and treatment measures should be taken to reduce the corresponding index factor risk of the water supply system in order to achieve the purpose of reducing the comprehensive risk of the whole.According to the risk evaluation results,this paper gives the risk prevention measures to reduce the risk weight of water supply system in a certain district of southern city and the content of water quality analysis and verification after water quality reform.