An Analysis Of The Influence Of Pupils’ Commuting Behavior Based On Urban Driving Restriction Policy Traffic Restriction Area

In order to alleviate urban traffic congestion,motor vehicle tail number restriction policy has been widely used in major cities,resulting in the division of traffic restriction areas which has brought different degrees of impact on the commuting behavior of urban residents.At present,the research on the division of tail number restricted area is mostly focused on the analysis of policy effect,and the research object is further subdivided.At the same time,the research on Pupils’ commuting behavior mainly focuses on the analysis of commuting influencing factors,and lacks the analysis based on the background of tail number traffic restriction area division.Therefore,in the background of Beijing traffic restriction area division,this paper attempts to refine the study object of commuting behavior into primary school students,explore the specific impact of traffic restriction area division on primary school students’ commuting behavior,and provide ideas and reference for primary school students’ commuting behavior management.In this paper,under the framework of traffic demand management theory,with Beijing primary school students’ commuting survey as the data source,based on the random utility theory and survival analysis theory,the logit non aggregate model and Cox proportional risk model are constructed by the method of combining feature analysis and model analysis.From the choice of primary school students’ commuting mode,car transportation and primary school students’ commuting departure time The main research contents and conclusions are as follows:(1)According to the comparative analysis of commuting data of primary school students in the restricted traffic area of the Fifth Ring Road and the non restricted traffic area outside the Fifth Ring Road,when the commuting distance is more than 5km,the division of the restricted traffic area of the tail number has the greatest impact on the choice of commuting mode of primary school students.The division of the restricted traffic area of the tail number makes the use rate of cars in the restricted traffic area of the fifth ring road be controlled,and some primary school students commute to electric vehicles,while the non restricted traffic area outside the fifth ring road does not Affected by this.(2)The MNL model is constructed to analyze the influence of the division of tail number restricted traffic area on the commuting mode choice of primary school students.The study finds that the non restricted traffic area outside the Fifth Ring Road is more likely to choose car commuting than the primary school students in the restricted traffic area within the Fifth Ring Road,and the primary school students in the restricted traffic area within the Fifth Ring Road are more likely to choose electric vehicles that are not affected by the restricted traffic policy.(3)Build BL model to analyze the impact of tail number restriction area division on car pick-up and pick-up,and divide commuting mode into car and other traffic modes.It is found that the parents in the non restricted zone outside the Fifth Ring Road are more willing to choose car pick-up,which indicates that the division of tail number restricted zone has a great impact on the car pick-up of primary school students,and can reduce the use rate of cars in the restricted zone to a certain extent.(4)The Cox proportional risk model is constructed to analyze the influence of tail number restriction area division on primary school students’ commuting departure time.It is found that the primary school students who choose car commuting outside the Fifth Ring Road have earlier departure time.Based on the results of feature comparison and model analysis,this paper makes an elastic analysis of the significant influencing factors,and puts forward targeted suggestions for traffic demand improvement,with a view to providing guidance for primary school students’ commuting management,urban traffic improvement,promoting primary school students’ independent travel and improving the current situation of urban traffic congestion.