Research On The Intermodal Behavior Of Passengers Between The Hubs Of The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration

With the continuous advancement of the urbanization process,the urban agglomeration,a kind of urban form,has emerged in our country and is becoming more mature.The development strategy of regional economic integration makes the political,cultural and economic exchanges between cities in urban agglomerations increasingly close.With the rapid development of high-speed rail,air plane and other modes of transport,people put forward higher requirements for the travel of urban agglomerations,resulting in the emergence of the passenger intermodal,which is a transport service model.The appearance of this model has expanded the travel area of residents in urban agglomerations and brought about changes in passenger demand for urban agglomeration hubs.At present,passenger intermodal transportation in China is still in its infancy,and the transportation facilities between the hubs have not been reasonably allocated according to the changes in passenger demand brought by the intermodal passenger transport.As the main body of passenger transportation,the rule of human travel determines the intermodal hub transportation changes in passenger demand.Therefore,relying on the key research and development plan of the Ministry of Science and Technology,"Key Technologies for Integrated Operation of Multi-modal Passenger Transport Hubs in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Cluster",this article taked passengers who have an intermodal travel as the research object.Based on a thorough investigation of existing research,this paper conducted a study on passengers’ intermodal travel behavior between hubs of urban agglomerations.The specific research work is as follows:First of all,from the attributes of the plan,the attributes of the travel scene,the personal attributes of the passengers,and the passengers’ concern about convenience,reliability,and comfort,this paper defined the survey parameters for the travel characteristics of passengers,and designed an SP questionnaire based on this,then conducted a preliminary statistical analysis of the characteristics of passengers who take a intermodal travel based on the survey statistics.After excluding invalid questionnaires in this survey,612 valid questionnaires were recovered.Secondly,this paper carried out the modeling of transfer behavior selection between hubs.Through the cross-analysis of personal attributes and selection ratios,the influencing factors of selection of the transfer modes between transportation hubs have been selected to determine the model variables.Then the paper builded MNL modeselection models that only consider mode attributes and consider personal attributes,and calibrated the parameters.It shows that personal attributes such as age,occupation,and income all have a significant impact on the choice of transfer method between hubs.Then,considering the whole process of intermodal transportation of urban agglomerations,according to the cross-analysis of various attributes and the selection ratio of intermodal transportation schemes,the factors influencing passengers’ selection of intermodal travel plans between hubs of urban agglomerations were analyzed.Based on considering the properties of the plan,this article added travel scene attribute variables and passenger personal attribute variables to construct different NL models and perform calibration and verification respectively.In addition,considering the latent attitude reflected by the passengers’ attitude problem,according to the principle of the structural equation model,the latent attitude of the passenger has been taken as the latent variable,and after finding its adaptation value,the paper put it into the NL model to construct the SEM-NL model and calibrated the parameters.The model results show that,passengers’ concern about safety,convenience and reliability during travel has a significant impact on their choice of intermodal transportation.Finally,taking Shenyang-Lanzhou as an example,the sensitivity of the transfer method between the hubs in Beijing to the running time and walking distance and the sensitivity of the joint travel plan to the transfer time and interval time were calculated using the selection probability weighting method.Based on this,the paper analyzed the effect of inter-hub coordination level on passenger interoperability.