Research On The Prediction Of Estimated Price Index Of The Municipal Pipe Network Design Based On Grey Theory

As China’s economic transition into a critical period,the engineering construction sector is also deepening reform.In the preliminary design stage of municipal engineering construction,due to the lack of unified standards and methods in the preparation of budget estimates and the lack of available price index,the project cost cannot be effectively managed,and it is difficult to effectively control the investment in construction projects.Through the reasonable and effective method to carry on the processing and analysis to the valuable cost data,and establishes the quantitative data analysis model,carries on the forecast to the estimate price index through the model,thus is helpful to improve the design estimate accuracy.In this thesis,the preliminary design stage of municipal pipe network engineering design budget problems are studied,through the use of work breakdown structure(WBS)to decompose municipal pipe network engineering,the municipal pipe network engineering budget price index is constructed,the use of grey system prediction model to predict the budget price index.First of all,through the research and development status at home and abroad,this paper analyzes the shortcomings of the current budget estimate index system,the application of different prediction models in the cost index prediction and the application of the grey system prediction model.Then,by means of WBS,the municipal pipe network project is decomposed,the design estimated price index system of municipal pipe network project is constructed,and the existing cost data is converted into estimated price index.Finally,a mathematical model is established by using the grey system theory to predict the price index of the design estimate,and then the model is applied by a practical case.Through the analysis of the completed cost data,the prediction model of the municipal pipe network project budget estimation index system based on the gray theory is established,and the budget estimation index which is worth reference is obtained,which is conducive to the reasonable prediction and control of the design budget estimation index and the effective control of the total investment of the project.