Research On Risk Allocation Of Pension Agency PPP Project

With the aging of our country's society becoming more and more serious,it is difficult to satisfy the society's growth in the need for old-age care by relying solely on the government's financial development of the endowment.Therefore,social capital has entered the pension field as an important way to ease the pressure for the development of the pension industry.In this context,the state began to lower the threshold for social capital to enter the field of pensions,and encouraged and promoted the establishment of a PPP model to build an old-age care institution.The PPP model has the advantages of being able to increase the supply efficiency of public sector pension institutions,activating the vitality of social capital,and providing quality services.However,there are still many problems in the actual operation.Relevant research shows that in practical projects,the public sector is more inclined to use its own advantages to transfer excessive project risks to social capital.However,unfair risk allocation will affect the smooth progress of the project and even cause the project to fail.It will also affect the enthusiasm of social capital to participate in the construction of the PPP model.Therefore,the reasonable risk allocation between public and private parties becomes the key to the success of the PPP project for the elderly care institutions.Solving the problem of reasonably sharing risks has important practical significance for promoting the construction of the PPP model for pension institutions and alleviating the pressure on social pensions.In view of this,this paper combines the Shapley value method with the risk allocation correction index system based on the principle of risk allocation to study the risk allocation problem of the pension agency PPP project.Based on the research of the literature on risk allocation of PPP projects,this paper finds that there are still deficiencies in the study of risk allocation of PPP projects in China's aged care institutions.Therefore,a more in-depth study was conducted on it.The first part introduces the research background and significance of the paper.Through the analysis of domestic documents,it has been found that the domestic research on pension institutions PPP projects started late.The research on risk allocation of PPP projects in pension institutions also focuses on qualitative analysis and lacks quantitative sharing research.The second part defines the concept of the PPP project for the elderly care agency and introduces related theories such as risk management of the PPP project.The third part uses the WBS-RBS method to identify the risk factors of the PPP project in the pension institution,and then conducts a questionnaire survey based on the risk list.The risk factors are divided into four different levels according to the degree of impact(probability of occurrence × hazard),and finally 15 key risk factors and their initial sharing programs.In the fourth part,based on the principle of risk allocation,a correction index system for risk allocation of pension institutions PPP projects was constructed.The applicability of the Shapley value method to the risk allocation field is analyzed.Finally,a risk allocation model combining the revised index system and the Shapley value method was constructed.In the fifth part,the risk allocation model constructed by the dissertation is applied to the PPP project of K city pension institution.Taking the change risk of laws and regulations as an example,the proportion of risk losses that the public sector and social capital should each bear is calculated.The sixth chapter is a summary of the work done by the paper and the prospects for future research.The innovation of this paper: Based on the research results of risk allocation principles and risk allocation evaluation sets,a pension risk assessment system for PPP projects with three primary indicators and seven secondary indicators was constructed.Combining the Shapley value method with the revised index system to solve the risk allocation problem of PPP projects in pension institutions,not only taking into account the participants' contribution to risk management,but also taking into account the differences in risk response capabilities of different participants,making the risk allocation result more fair.reasonable.