Research On Risk Allocation In PPP Project For Pension Real Estate

With the arrival of the aging problem in China,the contradiction between supply and demand of the aged gradually intensifies.In order to ease domestic pension pressure,the state has introduced various policies frequently to encourage private capital participation.PPP as a financing method widely used in the field of infrastructure construction,has been begun to try for the pension industry.At present,there is no successful experience in China for reference and the risk sharing is also less explored.In order to achieve the systematic management and the reasonable share between government and social capitals,this paper studied the risk sharing issues based on the whole process of risk management to bring out the goal of value in PPP when it is applied in the real estate industry,Firstly,from reviewing the development and research status and researching the related theory of pension industry and PPP at home and abroad,this paper startes the feasibility analysis of applying PPP to pension real estate.The current difficulties faced by domestic pension real estate and the effectiveness of PPP mode are summed up and the advantages of combining the two elements are also analyzed.Secendly,this paper analyse the risk factors of PPP project for pension real estate.Based on literature research and combining the characteristics of domestic endowment real estate PPP,this paper divides the risk into exogenous risk and endogenous risk and analyzes them in a systematic and comprehensive way.The risks were distinguished into 11 categories with 28 specific risk factors to establish the initial risk identification list.Thirdly,according to the risk identification initial list and certain principles,risks were divided into three levels: Core level,Standard level,Factor level.By using the method of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation,the risk grade of PPP project for pension real estate and the risk grade of each risk factor are obtained.This paper screens out the main risk factors to be faced,establishes a list of major risk factors and identifies the main targets of risk sharing.At last,the paper studied the qualitative and quantitative analysis of risk sharing in PPP project of pension real estate.In qualitative analysis process,the expert investigation method was used to allocate risks preliminarilyand identify the main body of risk bearing responsibility.Further quantitative analysis is needed for the risks that need to be shared by both sides.Learning from the past many similar infrastructure PPP project risk sharing literature research,triangular fuzzy number theory and SHAPELY value method were used to build risk sharing model.According to the contribution of the government and social capital participants to the risk taking capacity in the process of risk sharing,risk was distributed in proportion and The feasibility of the analysis method is verified by an example.