Life Cycle Risk Allocation Research On "Medical Pension Combined" Pension Agency Project Under BOT Model

The supporting problem of old people has become a serious problem in China.As the number of disabled old people increased,the way of traditional family supporting is overwhelmed for Chinese common �4+2+1� family.Professional socialization pension institutions become the important approach which is strongly promoted by the country to relive the problem of supporting old people.Currently,most of the pension institutions only provide nursing service but do not provide medical services.Medical facility in some good pension institutions is simple and crude which can not match the old-age care needs actually.So it is urgent to erect the project of Medical-Nursing Combined Institutional Care Mode(MPCPA)institution.However,the operating efficiency of our country's financial investment project is low and can't bear the huge investment pressure of MPCPA project only depending on government finance,which provides a good opportunity for social capital to participate in constructing the MPCPA project.BOT model acting as one of the Public-private Partnership(PPP)model attracts wide attention in the process of erecting MPCPA project.However,some current situation of BOT project indicate the existence of many problem in some under constructing project due to the irrational risk allocation in the agreement design of government and private capital.Herein,rational risk allocation becomes the key point of the success of MPCPA-BOT project.Since no relevant research was found,herein,this paper take MPCPA-BOT project and risk allocation of both BOT contractors as analysis unit and theme,respectively,to research the whole life cycle risk allocation problem of MPCPA project in BOT model.Firstly,this paper combines the literature research,related case research and counseling interview together to identify the life cycle risk factor(LCRF)list of our country's MPCPA-BOT project,and constructs the relationship model between them through analyzing the relationship between LCRF and MPCPA-BOT project result:LCR model.Secondly,this paper tests the LCR model through questionnaire survey.The key risk of MPCPA-BOT project is distinguished through adopting comprehensive evaluation to measure the importance of risk factors in the LCRF list corresponding to the risk consequences from occurrence probability and affecting the degree of achievement views.Lastly,this paper constructs affecting factors model(RAI)of risk allocation through analyzing the relative risk sharing theory as this paper's design basis of risk allocation scheme.This paper brings forward a configuration scheme of MPCPA-BOT project's key risk point based on that above design scheme,risk allocation matrix,which is verified by questionnaire survey about a suppose of risk allocation matrix.Through the research,there are more than thirty risk factors in MPCPA-BOT project whole life cycle,containing fourteen key risk which are medical institution's unreasonable design of aging risk.The distribution design of government credit risk and aging design risk in risk allocation matrix obtains high recognition by the professionals as the main survey population.