The Research On Social And Economic Vulnerability In Wenchuan Earthquake-stricken Area

Natural disaster areas have long been affected by disasters such as earthquakes,floods,and typhoons.The natural environment is very fragile and the ecosystem has been disturbed by unstable factors for a long time.At the same time,with the development of the connotation of the human social system and the expansion of its extension,the influence of natural activities is also increasing.Natural disasters are the result of the interaction between the human social system and the disaster-prone system.The damage caused by the disaster has an important connection with the degree of development of the local human socio-economic system.In economically developed areas,the population density of the region is high,and a large number of high-rise buildings are densely distributed in the center of the city.Under the influence of natural disasters,the intensity of disasters will increase significantly.If natural disasters are rare in human activities or have not yet been exploited in economically backward areas,the impact on human society will be minimal or negligible regardless of the extent of natural activities.In other words,under the same natural activity intensity,the socio-economic development in different regions will lead to different losses from natural disasters.One of the factors that causes this difference is the socio-economic vulnerability studied in this paper.It is the state of human social and economic systems that is vulnerable to or sensitive to natural disasters.It is a state of human society and nature.The response of disaster activities is the state immediately prior to the occurrence of adverse events.It is a product of unbalanced social structure and economic development.Its size is measured by the sensitivity and affordability of the disaster-affected body to the hazard factors.Therefore,under the background of the increasing frequency of natural disasters in the world,how to reduce the losses caused by natural disasters and improve regional disaster-resilience and post-disaster recovery capabilities are the key to achieving regional sustainable development.So far,the Wenchuan earthquake has been more than a decade.With the support of the government and all walks of life,the restoration and reconstruction of the Wenchuan Earthquake-hit area was basically completed in May 2011.However,the recovery and development of the disaster area still faces the threat of secondary geological disasters.The Wenchuan earthquake triggered many geological disasters,such as landslides,collapses,and mudslides.Since the earthquake,many large-scale landslides and mudslides such as “8.13” and “7.10” have already occurred.In the next few years,secondary geological disasters such as mudslides and landslides in the region will become more frequent,which will cause people's lives and property safety in the disaster areas.A huge threat.Therefore,this paper takes the Wenchuan Earthquake-stricken area as the research object,analyzes its social and economic vulnerability level,and then puts forward the countermeasures and suggestions for the sustainable development of the earthquake-stricken area have important practical significance.In order to verify the existence of vulnerability,this paper will conduct a regression analysis of the average intensity of earthquakes,economic losses,and the number of casualties in the region,so as to obtain a normal level of seismic intensity,economic losses,and population casualties.Firstly,using the casualty population as a dependent variable and the earthquake intensity as an independent variable,the result shows that its R2 is 0.809,that is,the natural disaster damage can explain 80.9% of the factors causing the death of the population,indicating that the physical impact of the earthquake is causing casualties.The main reason is that the remaining reasons are mainly reflected in the natural environment and socio-economic status of the regions.The natural environment such as the size of the slope,the stability of the geological structure,and the socio-economic status are reflected in the completeness of the disaster-resilience facilities and the organization's ability to resist disasters.Then,using economic loss as a dependent variable and seismic intensity as an independent variable,a linear regression was used to simulate the results.The results show that the R2 is 0.607,that is,the earthquake disaster risk can only explain the 60.7% difference in disaster economic losses.For further quantitative analysis,this paper uses the variation coefficient method to calculate the social and economic vulnerability before and after an earthquake in each region.The results show that the socio-economic vulnerability of natural disasters in the Wenchuan earthquake-stricken area changes over time as follows: the vulnerability of the population does not change significantly,economic vulnerability is rising in developed regions and declines in backward regions,social security.Vulnerability has generally declined,and overall socio-economic vulnerability has decreased compared with that before the earthquake.The characteristics of the socio-economic vulnerability spatial pattern are as follows: the social and economic variability shows a spatial agglomeration distribution with the same vulnerability,and the high social economic vulnerability areas are concentrated in the population,the economically developed regions,and the low social economy.Vulnerable areas are concentrated in regions where sparsely populated economies are underdeveloped but social security capabilities are high.Therefore,based on the conclusions,the paper puts forward the following recommendations: Rational planning reduces population density.In areas that are perennially affected by natural disasters,the increase and concentration of urban population will increase their potential population losses.Urban planning needs to comprehensively assess the natural disaster risk in each region.To avoid the occurrence of natural disasters,to reduce the population density in such areas by controlling the indicators of residential and commercial land use;to relocate and ecologically rehabilitate the areas that are difficult for human habitation;to maintain the coordinated development of economy and ecology,and to reduce human economic activity.Negative impacts on the ecological environment;through the use of engineering facilities and technical application measures,the social economic system protection system is constructed,the protection of the regional economic system is strengthened,and the ability of the regional economic system to resist natural disasters is improved.