Research On Vulnerability Evaluation Of Earthquake Disaster Emergency Logistics System

Frequent geological disasters in China have brought great threats to human life and property.The time and place of occurrence of earthquake disasters are difficult to control,and the difficulty of emergency rescue is increased.In the face of natural disasters,the system's emergency logistics operation capability has greatly affected the response efficiency of the emergency management system,and played a key role in the prevention of disasters and the rescue and stoppage work after the disaster.In order to reduce the losses caused by sudden disasters to human beings,it is necessary to start from within the system to reduce the vulnerability of the earthquake disaster emergency logistics system and improve the operational efficiency of the emergency logistics system.This paper starting from the operation mechanism of emergency logistics system,combining the three characteristics of vulnerability and logistics,confirm key indicators by the method of index analysis.Then,using DEA model and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to solve system efficiency and comprehensive ability,and give some improvement suggestions in base of influencing factors analysis.Firstly,this thesis determines six indicator dimensions from input and output,and refines the indicators to obtain 31 evaluation indicators by analyzing the specific characteristics of the three stages of pre-disaster,disaster and post-disaster and the three elements of logistics.Secondly,using correlation analysis method to initially select 23 evaluation indicators,and then calculate the importance of the indicators by the principal component analysis method.In addition,determine seven key indicators and establish an evaluation index system.Finally,taking Sichuan Province as an example,carry out a comprehensive evaluation of the vulnerability of the earthquake disaster emergency logistics system in Sichuan Province from 2011 to 2016.Give some suggestions for improving the economic,social and environmental benefits of the system through the analysis of influencing factors.The results show that the operational efficiency of Sichuan's emergency logistics system is generally good in 2011-2016.The comprehensive logistics system in 2011 has the best comprehensive capability and the weakest vulnerability.In 2015,the comprehensive capacity was the weakest and the most vulnerable.In 2012 and 2015,the emergency response capability declined rapidly,later it doubled in 2016 and showed a trend of continued growth.The region should increase economic input,such as real estate construction,geological disaster prevention and investment,strengthen logistics input on relief material reserve and transportation construction,increase information construction on professional equipment for seismic exploration.At the same time,we can reduce these output indicators such as direct economic losses from geological disasters,the number of geological disasters/deaths,and the number of earthquake disasters.So that it brings the growth of economic,social and environmental benefits through the reduction of the vulnerability of the emergency logistics system.