A Study On The Effect Of Population Aging On The Impact Of Urban And Rural Residents' Consumption

At the end of 2018,China's population aged 60 and over had 249 million people,accounting for 17.9% of the total population,up 0.6 percentage points from 2017.Among them,the population aged 65 and over is 167 million,accounting for 11.9%of the total population,up 0.5 percentage points from 2017,and the aging rate is further accelerated.The increasing number of elderly people will significantly affect the economic supply of a country or region,such as labor supply levels,interest rate levels,wage levels,and social support burdens.These variables are also important causes of changes in consumers.Therefore,residents' consumption behavior will inevitably be affected by aging.Based on this,studying the impact of China's population aging on consumption is of great significance to the government's grasp of the major economic development opportunities brought about by the aging of the population and the severe risks and challenges brought about by the aging of the population.Considering the special situation of China's urban-rural dual economy,this paper discusses the impact,size and effect of population aging on residents' consumption from the perspective of urban and rural areas.The main work is as follows:Firstly,starting from the concepts related to population aging and consumption,this paper briefly analyzes the characteristics of consumption behavior of the elderly,and on the basis of this,further elaborates the mechanism of the impact of aging on household consumption,and then uses the method of descriptive statistics.At present,the main characteristics of China's aging,the future development trend,and the consumption level and consumption structure of residents;Finally,using the parallel panel data of 26 provinces,municipalities and autonomous regions in China from 2001 to 2016,we have selected moderate urban and rural areas.The difference indicators respectively constructed an econometric model for urban areas and rural areas to study the effect of population aging on urban and rural residents' consumption.In the empirical analysis,VIF is used to test the multicollinearity problem between variables,which enhances the authenticity and validity of the panel model.Then,the two-step method of system GMM is used to empirically test the impact of population aging on urban and rural residents' consumption.Direction and size,considering that the elderly and children are pure consumers,the child dependency ratio is used as a comparative variable to analyze with the old-age dependency ratio.Finally,the panel threshold regression model is used to analyzethe different per capita.The non-linear relationship between population aging and consumption of urban and rural residents under the disposable income growth rate.The empirical results show that regardless of urban areas or rural areas,the old-age dependency ratio has a positive impact on the average consumption propensity of residents.Specifically,for urban areas,for every 1% increase in the old-age dependency ratio coefficient,the average consumption propensity of urban residents will increase by 0.481%;for rural areas,the average consumption propensity of rural residents will increase by 0.141% for every 1% increase.From the regression results of panel thresholds,the urban old-age ratio coefficient has a single threshold effect on the average consumption propensity of urban residents.The threshold is 0.0802,which can divide the influence of urban old-age dependency ratio on the average propensity to consume urban residents into two categories.One is urban low-income growth rate(RRINC_UR ? 0.0802),The second category is the urban high-income growth rate region(RRINC_UR>0.0802).By comparing the regression coefficient sizes of each interval,it is found that the positive impact of the urban old-age dependency ratio on the average consumption propensity of urban residents is further enhanced with the increase of the per capita disposable income growth rate;The rural old-age dependency ratio has the same threshold effect on the average consumption propensity of rural residents.The estimated threshold is 0.1002,which can divide the influence of rural old-age dependency ratio on the average consumption propensity of rural residents into two categories.The first category is rural low-income growth rate.The region(RRINC_UR ? 0.1002),the second category is the rural high-income growth rate region(RRINC_UR>0.1002).By comparing the regression coefficients of the two intervals,we can find that the positive impact of rural old-age dependency ratio on the average consumption propensity of rural residents gradually weakens with the increase of income growth rate,and has the effect of marginal decline.