Research On The Mechanism Of China's Population Aging To The Structural Upgrading Of Manufacturing Industry

The huge demographic dividend and rich natural resource endowment have made China's manufacturing industry an unprecedented development in the past 40 years.The development of manufacturing industry is of profound significance to China's economic growth.However,the situation at home and abroad is undergoing profound changes.The extensive and low-quality development model is no longer feasible.Transformation and upgrading of manufacturing is imperative.The change of population structure has great impact on various industries.How to adapt to the aging of the population to realize the transformation and upgrading of the manufacturing industry has become an important proposition of China's economic development in the context of population aging.Therefore,it is important to understand the impact mechanism of population aging on the manufacturing structure.The research in this paper is based on this issue.First of all,this paper analyzes the theoretical of the mechanism of population aging on the transformation and upgrading of manufacturing structure.This paper argues that the aging of the population mainly affects the transformation and upgrading of the manufacturing structure through the following four paths: the path of labor supply quantity,the path of labor supply quality,the path of consumption expenditure structure and the structure of government expenditure structure.Based on the theoretical analysis results of the four action paths,the basic assumptions of this paper are proposed.Secondly,this paper gives a detailed overview of population aging and manufacturing structure transformation and upgrading,which illustrates the importance of China's population aging and manufacturing transformation and upgrading to China's economic development and the challenges and opportunities.At the same time,according to the technical level,the manufacturing industry is divided into high-end technology manufacturing,mid-end technology manufacturing and low-end technology manufacturing,and according to this classification standard,the high-end indicators and rationalization indicators of the manufacturing structure are constructed.Finally,based on the panel data of China's 30 provinces from 2002 to 2016,this paper takes the population aging as an explanatory variable and conducts the regression of the benchmark regression and the mediating effect respectively to test whether the four paths exist.In turn,the total effect of population aging on the manufacturing structure and the indirect effects of mediator variables are obtained.The results show that: First,the aging of the population has promoted the high degree and rationalization of the manufacturing industry.Second,the aging of the population promotes the high and rational development of the manufacturing industry by reducing the supply of labor.Third,the aging of the population through the improvement of the quality of labor to promote the development of manufacturing,and the impact on the rationalization of manufacturing is not significant.4.The aging of the population has a restraining effect on the structuralization of the manufacturing industry through the transformation of consumer demand,and promotes the rationalization of the manufacturing structure.Fifth,the changes in the structure of government expenditure have inhibited the highly developed development of the manufacturing structure and the rationalization of the manufacturing structure.It is not significant;comprehensively,the combined effects of the four action paths on manufacturing heightened and rationalized are significantly positive.Sixth,the aging of the population in the central and western regions has a positive impact on the development of the manufacturing industry;only the effect of the aging of the eastern population on the rationalization of the manufacturing industry is significantly positive,and the impact of the central and western regions is not significant.