Research On The Factors Affecting The Migration Willingness Of Floating Population In Megacities

Since the reform and opening up,with the advancement of urbanization,the scale of floating population has expanded,and a large number of floating population has gathered in big cities.According to the data of China's Floating Population Development Report 2017,China's floating population reached 245 million in 2016,accounting for 17.72% of the total population.In the next decade or two,China will still be in the stage of rapid urbanization,and there will still be more than 200 million floating population in 2020.Most of the floating population will continue to gather in big cities,which leads to the continuous growth of population scale,excessive industrial agglomeration,environment al degradation,traffic congestion,resource shortage,housing prices rising too fast and other problems in megacities.In order to alleviate these problems,a population control policy has been implemented in megacities to control populati on size.After years of development and gradual improvement,the population control policy has developed from a single household registration management to a comprehensive management system that combines various management mea ns,such as "population management by house","population control by industrial structure" and "population management by credentials".However,these policy measures only play a certain role in the short term.In the long term,the population scale of megacities continues to grow,the limits of population regula tion are repeatedly broken,and the population regulation measures are ineffective.For this reason,this paper takes Beijing,Shanghai,Guangzhou and Shenzhen,four typical mega-cities in China,as examples,to study the main source of population growth in mega-cities by using China Migrants Dynamic Survey conducted by the National Health Committee in 2015 and 2016.By analyzing the spatial and structural distribution of the floating population,this paper studies the influencing factors of the migration intention of the floating population in megacities and finds the breakthrough of population regulation.Firstly,this paper studies relevant literature and theories on population mig ration,and determines the influence of the economic development level,income level,housing price and micro-individual characteristics of the floating populat ion on the migration intention of the floating population.At the same time,the paper sorts out the population control policies of the whole country and various megacities.Secondly,by analyzing the spatial distribution of floating population and its structural characteristics and changes in various districts and counties of megacities,the paper explores the relationship between population regula tion and control policies and floating population changes.Thirdly,this paper uses the cross tabulations to analyze the relationship between the micro individual factors of floating population in megacities and the migration intention of floating population.Fourth,the logit model is used to analyze the impact of the overall megacities,the impact of macroeconomic factors and micro-individual characteristics on migration intention of floating population in megacities.It is found that housing price has a positive u-shaped influence on the migration inte ntion of the floating population in megacities,while rent has an inverted u-shaped influence on the migration intention of the floating population in megacities,and housing price and rent have different influences on the migration intenti on of the floating population in different megacities;Percapita GDP has a pos itive impact on the migration intention of the floating population,while housing price and rent weaken the driving effect of per capita GDP on the migration intention of the floating population;The individual characteristics,family char acteristics and socio-economic characteristics of the floating population will have an important impact on their intention to move.Based on the research concl usions,the paper puts forward relevant suggestions to promote social integration of floating population,regulation and control of floating population in megacities and construction of housing rental market.