| In 2013,General Secretary Xi Jinping proposed the “One Belt,One Road” major strategic concept,and “advanced infrastructure interconnection” as the priority development direction of the “One Belt,One Road” initiative.The Chinese government encourages Chinese companies to go out and invest in and build infrastructure for the “Belt and Road” countries.Infrastructure construction has the characteristics of large capital demand and long construction period.The new cooperation model of partnership of public and private(PPP)is widely used in the process of infrastructure construction in various countries.However,in the process of infrastructure PPP project construction,there are many risks of certainty and uncertainty.The performance of infrastructure PPP projects in different countries is different.Among them,political risk is one of the main risks affecting the effectiveness of infrastructure PPP projects.In recent years,the factors affecting the effectiveness of infrastructure PPP projects have become a hot topic for scholars to study.Taking the “One Belt,One Road” countries as a sample,the political and economic risk factors are explored.However,there are fewer studies from the perspective of various dimensions of political risk.Therefore,it is of great practical significance to explore whether the various dimensions of national political risk have an impact on the effectiveness of infrastructure PPP projects and the degree of impact on the infrastructure construction of Chinese enterprises.Therefore,this paper is based on the data of the public-private partnership infrastructure projects of the five countries of Russia,including the “Belt and Road” in 2002~2017,to explore and compare the effects of various dimensions of national political risk on the effectiveness of PPP projects in various countries.Based on the development status of “One Belt,One Road”,this paper uses “quota sampling method” to select five countries from the “Belt and Road” countries as research samples,including Russia,the Philippines,Turkey,India and Brazil.Firstly,according to the data of national infrastructure PPP projects released by the World Bank,the status quo of infrastructure PPP projects in five countries including Russia was analyzed.According to the global governance index data,the political environment of the five countries was compared from the six dimensions of political risk.It is found that there are differences in the effectiveness of PPP projects in various countries’ infrastructures,and the various dimensions of political risks are different.In order to further explore the impact of various dimensions of national political risk on the effectiveness of infrastructure PPP projects in various countries,a logistic binary regression model was established,and the regression analysis of Waldorf’s backward stepwise regression method was used to analyze the effectiveness of infrastructure PPP projects in various countries.The following conclusions are drawn:(1)National political risk factors have an important impact on the success of a country’s infrastructure PPP project.(2)From a national perspective,the political influence factors of the effectiveness of infrastructure PPP projects in different countries are different.(3)From the perspective of various dimensions of political factors,the various dimensions of political factors have different effects on the effectiveness of infrastructure PPP projects in various countries.The various dimensions of political influence factors have a positive impact on the effectiveness of infrastructure PPP projects in various countries.The ability to control corruption,the level of rule of law,and the degree of public democracy have a greater impact on the effectiveness of infrastructure PPP projects.Finally,based on the empirical results,this paper puts forward relevant suggestions for the construction of infrastructure PPP projects for Chinese enterprises to the “Belt and Road” countries from the perspective of enterprises and governments. |
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