| In recent years,emergency incidents have occurred frequently in our country,and China's economy and society have been seriously affected.How to improve the level of emergency management and effectively respond to all kinds of emergency incidents is a problem of wide concern to the society.Emergency preparedness is a core task throughout the entire life cycle of emergency management.It is necessary to carry out emergency preparedness capability assessment.Based on the analysis of the current situation of emergency preparedness at home and abroad,this paper has constructed of emergency incidents preparedness capability assessment index system,established emergency preparedness capability assessment model and has made the empirical research.The main contributions are as follow:(1)Based on the technical method of "scenario-task-capability",Scenario construction and scenario analysis are carried out in combination with typical incidents cases,on this basis,scientifically divide the emergency preparedness tasks and capabilities to form an emergency preparedness capability framework.(2)Based on the basic risk level of emergency incidents,a triple emergency preparedness evaluation system including qualitative assessment indicators,quantitative assessment indicators and basic risk level indicators has been constructed,in which the qualitative assessment indicators consist of 4 first-level indicators,12 second-level indicators and 65 third-level indicators;quantitative assessment indicators includes 4 first-level indicators,12 second-level indicators and 31 third-level indicators;the basic risk level includes 11 indicators such as the natural disaster loss rate including 100 million yuan GDP.(3)Combined with the expert investigation method and AHP,this paper summarized and analyzed the opinions of 13 experts,calculated the weight of the qualitative and quantitative indicators of emergency preparedness capability,and used the ISRS theory to design the qualitative and quantitative index scoring standards.(4)The rank sum ratio method is used to comprehensively analyze the basic risks of emergency incidents in China from the distribution of basic risks,the classification of basic risks,and the annual changes of basic risks of emergency incidents in typical regions,and it is found that there is a certain relationship between the level of basic risks and the regional economic level and geographical location.(5)Under the premise of clarifying the basic risk level in different regions,select C city in province H as an example to develop an empirical analysis of the emergency preparedness capability evaluation model,and give some corresponding countermeasures and suggestions on the evaluation results. |
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