Dynamic Impact Study Of Basic Research Policy System On Basic Research Input: From The Perspective Of Policy Implementation

Basic research lay an important foundation for building an innovative country and the advanced country in science and technology.Under the guidance of strategies such as developing the country through science and education,building an innovative country and innovation-driven development,basic research and policy system in China have basically formed.Now,China is in a critical period in which system capacity is improving.However,in terms of the requirements of building an advanced country in science and technology and the whole chain of scientific and technological innovation,ratio of basic research investment to R&D expenditures in China is insufficient,which has been maintained at about 5% for nearly 20 years.The important reason is that the increase rate of basic research investment is less than that of the whole society's R&D input.That is to say,the total amount of basic research investment is insufficient.The externality,uncertainty and high risk of basic research determine that basic research is a government-led research.What's more,policy is one of the most important means for government to realize its function,so it's necessary to explore the influence of basic research policy on basic research input.In this paper,we use the literature research method to review the relevant theories as well as research of policy analysis,and construct the COPA(Contents,Outlook,Power,Authorities)analysis framework of basic research policy implementation.Then we analyze the evolution of basic research policy since the reform and opening as well as the process and effect of basic research policy implementation.What's more,we construct the VAR model of basic research policy to basic research input.And we evaluate both the dynamic influence which central,core basic research policies have on basic research input and which local basic research policies have on local fiscal expenditure on basic research.Also,we predict the development trend of them.Finally,we compare the effect of core,central and local basic research policy.Comes the conclusions of this paper as follows:Firstly,the basic research policy focuses on project management in the early stage,focusing on personnel training in the mid-term and facility construction in the later stage.Policies of low-level outlook such as notifications and measures account for a large proportion,so the power of policies need to be improved.The central authorities also account for a large proportion.Secondly,in terms of policy contents,project management and facility construction of central policies have significant impact on basic research input,and talent training of local policies has significant impact on local fiscal expenditure on basic research.In terms of policy outlook /power,both central and core policy outlook /power have significant impact on basic research input,and local policy outlook /power have no significant impact on local fiscal expenditure on basic research.In terms of policy authorities,representative authorities that publish central,local,core policies and other authorities that publish local policies have significant impact on basic research investment /local fiscal expenditure on basic research.Thirdly,it is estimated that by 2020,the total investment on basic research will be between 14.41 billion and 14.9 billion yuan with an average growth rate of 16%-18% in 2018-2020,local fiscal expenditure on basic research will be about 9.85 billion yuan with an average growth rate of 13%-14%.Based on the research results,this article provides suggestions for the design of basic research policies at different levels in China from the perspective of policy implementation.