| China's housing market has been gradually established and has achieved long-term development since the reform of the housing system in 1998.As one of the pillar industries of the national economy,the real estate industry has made great contributions to China's economic growth.At the same time,the "Research Report on the Aging Trend of the People's Republic of China" issued by the National Working Committee on Aging shows that China's society is in the accelerated stage of the aging period,and the population is gradually changing to a mode of low birth rate,low mortality rate,and low population growth rate China's aging population shows a high proportion of aging population,and the trend of aging development.The main body of housing consumption is people,and the aging of the population will have a great impact on Chinese real estate market.The healthy and stable operation of the real estate market that is in the pillar position of the economy is of great significance to Chinese economic development.Therefore,in the face of regional differences in housing prices,how to better solve the housing problem of residents in response to the problem of aging population,rationally optimize the allocation of urban resources,achieve balanced development of regional housing,and promote the steady,healthy and orderly development of the national real estate market have certain theoretical value and practical significance.Based on the current background of the intensified population aging process and regional housing price differentiation,this article delves into the influencing mechanism of population aging,housing price fluctuations and housing consumption spatial structure.Based on the national inter-provincial panel data from 2007 to 2018,the classic panel model and spatial econometric model were used to empirically test the population aging,housing price fluctuations and housing consumption spatial structure.The research indicates:The regression of panel data model at the national level found that the degree of population aging has no significant effect on housing consumption of urban residents,and house prices have a significant positive effect on housing consumption of urban residents.The interaction between population aging and housing prices is not significant,and aging The regression coefficient failed the significance test in separate regression.The panel data model regression at the regional level found that the agingpopulation and house prices in the eastern and central regions have no significant impact on housing consumption of urban residents.The housing prices in the western region have passed the significance test,while the aging population has affected the housing consumption of urban residents.Not obvious.After introducing the interactive term of population aging and housing prices in the eastern and central regions,the regression coefficient of the interactive term passed the significance test,and the western region failed to pass the significance test after introducing the interactive term.The regression results of the spatial econometric model show that the spatial autoregressive coefficient ? is positive in the geographic distance weight matrix,spatial adjacency weight matrix and economic distance matrix,and it passes the significance test,which indicates that there is a significant Space overflow effect in interprovincial housing consumption in China.The aging of the population has a positive influence on the housing consumption of urban residents in the three spatial weight matrices,which is contrary to empirical theory,but is consistent with the actual situation in China;the impact of housing prices on the housing consumption of urban residents in the three spatial weighting matrices is positive in neighboring provinces or areas with similar economic development levels;the interaction between aging and housing prices finds that aging will not only affect housing consumption itself,but will also have a further positive affects housing consumption through housing prices. |
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