An Empirical Study Of The Impact Of Population Aging On Housing Prices

In the second year that China has just stopped welfare distribution of housing and started housing monetization reform,China has entered an aging society.In the past two decades,China's real estate market has been in the fast lane,and the average price of commercial housing sales has been on the rise as a whole.At the same time,the scale and proportion of the aging population in China also tend to rise,and the speed of aging is gradually accelerating.The deepening of the ageing of the population will have a profound impact on social and economic development,and the development of the real estate market is based on people,so it may be even more deeply affected by the ageing of the population.Based on the national macro-panel data,this paper explores the impact of population aging on housing prices through empirical analysis,and analyzes the possible impact mechanisms and phase differences,and finally proposes corresponding policy recommendations based on the conclusions of empirical research.In the introduction,this article reviews the related research on the effects of population aging on housing prices at home and abroad,and then conducts theoretical analysis on this basis.The theoretical analysis section first defines the meaning of population aging and housing prices,and then from the perspective of real estate market supply-demand equilibrium analysis by constructing a generational overlap model,it is found that the aging population will have a negative impact on housing prices.Then it analyzes the direct impact of population aging on housing prices from three levels: the life cycle hypothesis from a personal perspective,the intergenerational transfer of savings and housing assets from a family perspective,and the total housing demand from the social perspective.Besides,this paper points out that population aging may indirectly affect housing prices by slowing population growth and restricting socioeconomic development and increasing income levels.The empirical analysis is the focus of the full text.Firstly,through the statistical analysis of the relevant data of population aging,three characteristics of China's current population aging are obtained: the acceleration of aging,the gap between urban and rural aging tends to be significant,and the aging differences between regions are obvious.It also finds that and the changes in the average price of commercial housing sales also vary significantly between different provinces.This provides a basis for subsequent variable selection and targeted policy recommendations.Then,based on panel data from 30 provinces,autonomous regions,and municipalities in China(excluding Tibet)from 2000 to 2017,this article constructs a basic regression model,a model that introduces the crossover term between population aging and natural population growth or per capita disposable income of urban residents,and the threshold panel model with population aging as the threshold variable to make empirical analysis.Finally,30 provinces and cities are divided into two groups based on the development level of the real estate market by using the research methods of existing scholars for reference for the comparative analysis of the above three models.The results of empirical studies show that:(1)There is a significant negative correlation between population aging and housing prices as a whole,and there is a significant positive correlation between the natural population growth rate or disposable income of urban residents and housing prices.(2)Population aging weakens the role of population natural growth rate and urban residents' per capita disposable income in promoting housing prices.(3)The weakening effect of population aging on the natural population growth rate and the per capita disposable income of urban residents in areas with different levels of real estate market development has phase differences.In terms of the degree of population aging,the weakening effect of population aging appears later in regions with high levels of real estate market development than in areas with low levels.Based on the above research conclusions,this article proposes the following four policy suggestions:(1)Pay attention to the influence of aging population and adhere to the differentiated real estate control policy(2)Promote the reverse flow and sink of the population to slow down the aging of the population and adjust regional housing demand.(3)Formulate a differentiated population policy and control the reasonable population growth.(4)To increase policy support for the elderly real estate project and promote the nationwide distribution of the elderly industry.