An Analysis Of The Divorce Situation And Its Influencing Factors In The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region

Since the implementation of the reform and opening up policy,with the transformation of the social economy and the impact of culture,people's concepts have gradually become more open,and the understanding of family and marriage is different from the past,and the divorce rate is rising.The rise o of the divorce rate is the result of the combined effects of many factors.It cannot be simply characterized by good and bad.The study of the divorce situation and its influencing factors can reflect the changes in the social age background,the changes in people's values Judging from the crude divorce rate across the country from 1990 to 2017,the divorce rate in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region has always been higher than the national level,and has been increasing year by year.This paper aims to conduct a discussion and analysis of the divorce situation and its influencing factors in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.According to the research ideas from the whole to the local,that is,from the whole country to Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei,then to Beijing,Tianjin,and Hebei,from the society An in-depth analysis of economic and demographic characteristics reveals that the proportion of female divorce in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is increasing,the peak age group for divorce is delayed,that is,the number of divorce in middle-aged groups is increasing,and the population with high education is more likely to divorce(The phenomenon of divorce is highlighted by the fact that women with professional skills are highly prone to divorce.In addition,the results of divorce analysis in Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei are compared,and the degree of influence of the three places on the overall divorce situation of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei is further seen.On the basis of intensive research on the divorce issues of scholars,the factors influencing the divorce rate in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region are summarized into six aspects:economy,family,education level,Career,population mobility,population structure,and per capita Gross Regional Product,Total Dependency Ratio,Illiterate Population,,High school and above population share,Occupation of Third Industry,Population Flow Coefficient,Sex Ratio of Population over 15 Years,Average first marriage age.The eight variables of age were substituted into a principal component regression model that explained the influencing factors of the divorce rate in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.The idea of discussion from the whole to the whole runs through the whole text.Therefore,in the model part,the paper also continues to compare the model results according to the order of Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei.The results of the model show that the per capita Gross Regional Product,the high school education and above account for the proportion of the population over 6 years old,the proportion of employees in the tertiary industry,the population mobility coefficient,the sex ratio of the population over 15 years old,and the average age of first marriage are the six variables of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei.The divorce rate in the region is positively correlated.Among them,the proportion of high school and above with a population of over 6 years old and the proportion of employees in the tertiary industry has the greatest positive effect on the divorce rate;while the total dependency ratio and illiterate population account for the proportion of the population over 15 years old.These two variables are the opposite force for the divorce rate.In addition,according to the comparison of the model results of the sub-regions,it can be seen that Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei each promoted the divorce rate of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei in these variables.In order to better grasp the changing trend of future divorce rate in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region,this paper selects the grey prediction model to predict the divorce rate in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region in the next three years.The prediction results show that the divorce rate of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei is still present in the next three years.The trend has been increasing,but the growth rate has slowed down.Hebei and Tianjin have played a major role in the future divorce rate growth in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.