Counter-terrorism In The Lake Chad Basin And Its Effects On Presidential Tenure In Office

This thesis examined the relationship between counter-terrorism within the Lake Chad Basin,hereinafter,referred to as LCB and its effects on presidential tenure in office.This region is geographically located in Northern central Africa.The countries in the LCB,established the Lake Chad Basin Commission(LCBC)in 1964.It had as objective to ensure the most efficient use of water,land and other natural resources and to harmonize regional development.The LCBC,an intergovernmental institution promoting regional integration,created the Multinational Joint Task Force(MNJTF)in 1998,primarily to maintain peace and security in the region.In April 2012,the task of this structure was reinvigorated and broadened to manage the ongoing regional menace perpetrated by the Islamic terrorist group,Boko Haram.The MNJTF was composed of troops from Nigeria,Cameroon,Chad,Niger and subsequently Benin Republic.This force has been fairly effective in containing the Boko Haram threat within the region.The political consequences,however,has not been identical for leaders of the member states of the LCBC participating in this counter-terrorism operation.There are varied political systems in the region.Most countries are either autocratic or hybrid regimes.This paper relies on secondary data derived from available public data sets in explaining this phenomenon.The phenomenon of leaders in Nigeria and Chad with focus on the 2015 and the 2016 Presidential Elections respectively,is used to examine the relationship between counter-terrorism operations within the Lake Chad Basin Commission and its effects on political survival.The main research question of this thesis therefore was: does the counter-terrorism operation in the Lake Chad Basin region affect presidential tenure in office? Other questions explored in this research were: do the political systems in these countries affect leaders' tenure in office as a result of the counter-terrorism operation? Finally,how do countries in the region react in face of a common threat? The paper developed the ‘reactionary war hypotheses' as a logical response to these questions.It argued that: Counter-terrorism in the Lake Chad Basin sub-region greatly affects leaders' tenure in office and this is subject to regime type.It also purports that the probability of countries working together to address an international crisis,increases in face of a common threat,irrespective of regime type nor of a leaders' chances of political survival.This argument was developed as a logical response to the partial inapplicability of the diversionary war theory in explaining international conflict initiation in third world countries and its effects on tenure.The research adopted a rigorous qualitative analytical approach using Nigeria and Chad as case studies during the period 2010 to 2016.Data collection was mostly derived from secondary sources such as journals,books,news media and official reports.Special focus was given to the Global Terrorism Index for the years 2015,2016 and 2017.Reference was also made to the Democracy Index of 2018 in ascertaining regime types in the sub-region.Official communiques and official websites of relevant organizations formed the primary source of data for this study.Results suggested that,leaders of highly democratic countries were more likely to lose office and held accountable for either perceived inaction or failure in the counterterrorism operation than their counterparts in autocratic states.This study demonstrated that international conflict initiation in the Lake Chad Basin is not always diversionary as the diversionary war theory will predict.It argued rather,that international conflict initiation is often a reaction to an existing menace.It however agreed with the diversionary war theory's premise that leaders' are always held politically responsible for their belligerent foreign policies.This germane perspective also demonstrated how regional clusters like the Multinational Joint Task Force,foster regional integration and cooperation between states.In this case,the steep decline in Boko Haram's capacity since 2015 was thanks to the intervention of the MNJTF.Generally,the study comprised of five Chapters.Chapter one covered the introductory part of the work which included an introduction explaining the topic,significance of the research,research questions,hypotheses and research objectives.Thereafter,in a successive sequence,it presented the methodology which included a case study approach with data collected principally from secondary sources.The chapter continued with the intended academic breakthrough which was primarily to present an alternative approach to explaining international conflict initiation in third world countries in general and LCB region in particular.The chapter ends with structure of the thesis,and a working plan.In chapter two,the study began by providing the definition of terrorism and later elucidated on the broad academic literature on counter-terrorism both as a global and regional phenomenon.The brilliant academic publication on terrorism by A.P.Schmid(2011)was highly referenced.It also elaborated on the fundamental concepts of terrorism and counter-terrorism central to this study,with special emphasis given to the US led counter-terrorism efforts since 2001 with the attack on the World Trade Centre.The study was also cognizant of its serious global and regional ramifications,including in the Lake Chad Basin.The study specifically looked at the counterterrorism operation in the Middle East as well as similar efforts in the LCB.Thereafter,the study focused on the existing literature on the counter terrorism efforts against Boko Haram in the Lake Chad Basin region.Reference was made to the works of African scholars such as Isaac Olawale Albert,Bakary Sambe and many others.They offer a unique perspective of the crises pursuant to their proximity to the situation.The second phase discusses the existing theoretical frameworks that link international conflict initiation to tenure in office.Particular consideration is given to the diversionary war theory and the Regional Integration theory.A lot of allusion is made to the works of Jack Levy(1989)and that of Karns and Mingst(2010)respectively.In chapter three,the research dwelled principally on existing data on terrorism and counter-terrorism efforts in the Lake Chad Basin region.It relied principally on data provided by the Global Terrorism Index for 2015,2016 and 2017.It elaborated on the menace pose by the terrorist group Boko Haram.Other global terrorism parameters were also relied upon to come up with facts regarding terrorist activities in the region.The study began by tracing a brief but succinct history on the origin of the sect,their ideologies and their modes of operation.The research also sought to know the causes and motivations of this sect,the effects of their activities on the inhabitants and on socioeconomic development of the region.The study enunciated on the efforts put in place by the LCBC countries to counter Boko Haram.Special attention is given to the origin of the MNJTF,its activities and a critique on the effectiveness of the MNJTF with particular focus on the financial,geopolitical,and humanitarian/ human rights weaknesses of the force.The chapter concludes by elaborating on the political systems existent in the region.It relies on the Economist Intelligence Unit 2018 Democracy Index classification to define the political systems operational in Nigeria and Chad.The study explained the peculiarities of the hybrid regime in Nigeria,the autocratic regime in Chad and their political implications.It dwells on the impact of the counter-terrorism operation on public perception.It notes that the audience cost is higher for leaders in hybrid regimes than leaders in autocratic regimes.Chapter four dwelled on data analysis.It is in this chapter that the puzzle is connected.The nexus between counter-terrorism and tenure in office is analytically well developed in this chapter.I put my hypothesis to test by looking at the overall response by the Multinational Joint Task Force in containing this menace.This is the main independent variable of the work.The chapter further elaborated on the ‘reactionary war hypothesis' and the theoretical implications in explaining international conflict initiation in Africa,a germane development of this research.The researcher attempted an appraisal in explaining states' behavior in face of a common threat.It is in this chapter that an attempt in filling the gap on the relationship between counter-terrorism and leaders political tenure in office is discussed.This is achieved by analyzing the data derived in course of the research.An elaboration of the regime types in the region that accounts for the control variables of this work is also discussed in this chapter.To better elaborate on the political impact of counterterrorism effort,this chapter attempted a specific appraisal of the dependent variables of this thesis which are the 2015 Presidential Elections in Nigeria and the 2016 Presidential Elections in Chad.The chapter ended with a tabular representation of the nexus between counter-terrorism and Presidential tenure in office.Chapter five was the final chapter of this study.It presented summary findings of the research which concurred with the hypothesis of the study.A rigorous analysis proved that there was a correlation between counter-terrorism and Leaders tenure in office.The chapter proceeded with the limitations of the research which was predominantly the time factor.Despite these limitations to the study,conclusions arrived at were thorough.The chapter ends with academic and policy recommendations and bibliography.