Research On The Effects Of Population Age Structure On The Residents' Consumption In China

Since 1978,China's economy has grown rapidly,with an average annual GDP growth rate of about 10%,and it has entered a stage of high-quality development.In the crucial period of economic transition,China,as a developing country with a large population base,has achieved such great achievements in just a few decades.But at the same time,the problem of insufficient residents' consumption and domestic demand in China has become more serious.The residents' consumption rate in China has continued to slump for the past few years,and the contribution rate of consumption to China's economic growth has been gradually decreasing.China is undergoing a transformation of economic growth mode,but insufficient consumption has severely hindered this process.Among the factors that affect residents' consumption,the age structure of the population has a direct impact on consumption.However,as the natural population growth rate in China keeps falling,the proportion of the working-age population is decreasing,and the problem of population aging is becoming more and more serious.Therefore,under the background of the consumption inadequate and aging population,this study focuses on the current impact mechanism of age structure on the residents' consumption in China.And then,it is validated according to the empirical analysis,in order to provide theoretical basis and empirical reference for the formulation of China's economic and population policies.Firstly,this paper reviews some relevant academic researches and classical consumption theories at home and abroad.Based on this,theoretically,the paper expounds the impact mechanism of the population age structure on residents' consumption.Secondly,combining the population and economic policies in each period,the author analyzes the status quo and the relationship of China's population age structure and residents' consumption,and summarizes their characteristics and changing trends.Therefore,it is concluded that the aging of China's population continues to deepen and that China's consumption rate continues to slump.Thirdly,based on the comparison of related theories and indicators,the author constructs a more reasonable fixed effect model with the population dependency ratio,the residents' consumption rate and other factors affecting consumption,and then continuously adjusts the model according to the actual needs of the model and test.From the national analysis,regional comparison and urban and rural comparisons,the results obtained in this paper arewell-matched and closely related to the actual situation in China.Compared with other researches which are only based on the country and a certain province,this study is more innovative.Finally,according to the main conclusions,the author puts forward corresponding countermeasures and recommendations on national policies,social security and pension security,income and consumption.The results show that:(1)The trend of aging population in China is becoming aggravating,and the problem of sub-replacement fertility coexists with the aging of the population.The low fertility rate leads to an aging workforce structure.(2)In China,the child-age dependency ratio and old-age dependency ratio have opposite effects on the resident's consumption rate.Compared with the positive impact of child-age dependency ratio,the old-age dependency ratio has a greater negative impact on resident's consumption rate.The problem of population age structure in China is one of the vital causes of the low consumption rate.(3)There is obvious regional difference in the influence of population age structure on residents' consumption in China,which is inconsistent with the performance of the whole country.The positive effect of child-age dependency ratio on the four economic regions is significant.Among them,the impact on residents' consumption of the northeast is the greatest,and the impact on the western region is the least.The old-age dependency ratio has an obvious negative impact on the residents' consumption rate of the eastern region,and also has a significant positive impact on the northeast region,which is greater than other regions.But the impact on the central and western regions is not significant.(4)The population age structure has the same effect on the consumption rate of urban and rural residents as that of the whole country.And the impact on the urban areas is obviously greater.(5)Consumption habits have a large impact on China's residents' consumption,and urban and rural residents' consumption has long been accompanied by "high growth and high savings."...