The Impact Of Floating Population On Real Estate Prices

Population mobility is one of the most obvious population phenomena in our society.According to the report of China’s floating population development in 2018 issued by the state health and Family Planning Commission,as of 2017,the number of floating population in China was 245 million,accounting for 17.6% of the total population.At the same time,China’s floating population presents a series of structural characteristics,that is,the gender structure tends to be normal and the level of education continues to improve.At the same time,as a major issue related to the national economy and people’s livelihood,the sustained rise of housing prices has become an important social problem affecting hundreds of millions of people.So how does floating population affect real estate prices? In this context,the study of the impact of population mobility on real estate prices has important theoretical and practical significance.First of all,a large number of domestic and foreign literatures focus on the study of real estate price changes from the perspective of non-demographic factors,while a small number of papers focus on the study of real estate price changes from the perspective of demographic factors,but lack of the study of the impact of floating population structure on real estate price,thus constructing the framework of this paper The basis of questions and documents.Secondly,it analyzes the influence mechanism of floating population size and floating population structure on real estate price,systematically discusses the direct and indirect effects of floating population size on house price from the perspective of demand object,and discusses the agglomeration effect and external effect from the perspective of action form;and puts forward the influence mechanism of floating population structure on house price from two dimensions of gender structure and education structure Mechanism of action.Thirdly,this paper analyzes the real estate market and the current situation of population flow in China from the two levels of the whole country and 35 large and medium-sized cities.Based on the correlation analysis and mechanism of floating population and real estate price changes,three basic hypotheses are put forward:(1)the scale of floating population has a positive impact on real estate price;(2)the gender structure of floating population has uncertainty on real estate price;(3)the education structure of floating population has a positive impact on real estate price.Finally,based on the panel data of35 large and medium-sized cities in China from 2011 to 2017,this paper uses GMM model to empirically analyze the impact of the size and structure of floating population on real estate prices,and puts forward corresponding suggestions based on this study.This paper uses GMM method to estimate the dynamic panel model,and empirically tests the impact of floating population size,floating population gender structure and floating population education structure on real estate prices.The basic results are as follows:(1)the rise of floating population size has a promoting effect on real estate prices.This is because the expansion of the floating population has brought the rise of housing demand,and the supply of real estate is rigid,so the price of housing rises.The housing demand brought by the floating population can promote the rise of real estate prices through direct and indirect effects,as well as agglomeration and external effects;(2)the reduction of the proportion of male floating population(the normalization of the gender structure of the floating population)can promote the rise of house prices.This is the result of the release of housing demand brought about by the demand for living and risk protection of female floating population;(3)the effect of the increase of education level of floating population on the rise of real estate price is also obvious.This is because the increase of human capital level of floating population can increase income,enhance purchasing power and release housing demand.Based on the research conclusions of this paper,the following rational and policy suggestions are put forward:(1)to bring the floating population into the housing security system;(2)to adhere to the multi-agent supply,so that the government,market and other main roles complement each other;(3)to improve the diversified housing security system through multi-channel,strengthen the protection of law,resources,capital and other aspects;(4)to adhere to the simultaneous development of rent and sale,optimize the system China’s housing market rental structure.