A Study On The Impact Of Population Age Structure And Urbanization On Residents' Consumption

The proportion of consumption in a country's(regional)economy and its role in promoting and stabilizing the economic growth is huge.Therefore,the research on the desirability range of consumption rate and the influence factors of consumption rate and other issues are in the ascendant.Consider the status of China,as to consumption field,problem seems to be more serious,especially resident consumption rate.In horizontal comparison,China's consumption rate is not only lower than developed countries,such as the United States,France and Britain,but also than India,Brazil,Russia.As it for another aspect,our country's consumption rate has steadily descended from 62.1 percent to 51.4 percent by 1978,our country's consumption rate continued to decline,and significantly lower than comparable countries.It is a fact.As mentioned,consumption plays a huge role in the economic growth of a country.What is the factor?Does it have an impact on the economy?To solve these problems,researches on resident consumption rate have been the interest of the scholars.In order to figure out the reason of resident consumption rate's decline,this paper chooses relevant data of 31 province from the year of 2000 to 2014.We collect panel data,and do econometrics analysis.We use the fixed effects model(FE)and dynamic panel model to do empirical analysis of the panel data.We also use the threshold regression.The key independent variables are population age structure variable and urbanization variable,together with the third industries'share.The results of the study shows that child dependency ratio and the resident consumption rate are positively related.Child dependency ratio' rise will promote the resident consumption rate.The elderly dependency ratio' rise also contributes to the improvement of the resident consumption rate,but weaker.At the same time the study find that the resident consumption rate are inertia stable.We find the third industry's proportion have positive effect,and the decline of the urbanization rate contributes to the rise of the resident consumption rate.The research will help us understand the resident consumption rate deeply,it also provides some suggestions for the relevant government departments to formulate economic policies.Policies such as optimizing the structure of the population and improving the juvenile population proportion,together with optimizing the industrial structure,providing high quality service will contribute to the rise of the resident consumption rate.To great delight,two-child policy and the pursue of high quality development are put in force.