An Empirical Study On The Influence Of Age Structure And Urbanization On Consumption

Consumption,investment and export are the three of most important motivators of our economy growth.Since the implementation of the reform and opening-up policy,China' s steady and rapid economic growth mainly depends on investment and export.However,consumption rate is always below the international level and it is still declining with the steady growth of gross domestic product.In 2016,China's final resident consumption rate was only 39.32%,which indicates that consumption has become the only one of the three motivators that restricts China's economic growth.In recent years,with the happening of the financial crisis,the Sino-US trade war and other events,China's economic growth cannot rely on investment and exports alone,the government should shift from exports to domestic demand and consumption to boost economic growth.As the main body of economy and consumption,the population becomes the key of our country's economic transformation,so how does the population affect consumption?Since 2000,China has officially entered the aging stage,how the population aging affect consumption?In the process of exploring this problem,the paper chooses the age structure and urban-rural structure of the population as the cut-in point,researches on influence of population structure on the consumption of Chinese residents through qualitative and quantitative analysis method,and trying to answer the questions above.This paper divides population structure into population age structure and population urban-rural structure.In the case of other factors controlled,this paper explores the influence of population structure on consumption amount and consumption structure respectively by theoretical analysis and empirical analysis.This paper is divided into six parts,the first part expounds the background and significance of this study;The second part summarizes the domestic and foreign achievements,and analysis the thesis through the classical theory;The third and fourth parts clearly define the research object of this paper and make relevant description.The fifth part is positive analysis part;This part chooses the data of china's 31 provinces from 2000 to 2016 and constructs a dynamic panel data model,which examines the influence of population structure on the total consumption and consumption structure.The last part summarizes the relevant conclusions and puts forward relevant policy suggestions.The main results of the demonstration are as follows:Firstly,The aging of population and the low birth rate will bring negative effects to our total consumption.Secondly,the low birth rate will promote China's consumption structure migration from the consumption of surviving to the consumption of enjoyment and consumption of development,which is conducive to the upgrading of China's consumption structure.The effect of population aging on consumption structure is opposite to that of low birth rate,which is unfavorable to the upgrading of China's consumption structure.At last,the urbanization of population has a significant promoting effect on the resident's consumption expenditure,and promotes China's consumption structure migration from the consumption of surviving to the consumption of development,which is conducive to the upgrading of China's consumption structure.