The Influence Of Changes In The Age Structure Of The Population Of The Federal Republic Of Germany On Economic Growth In 1952-1989

After the Second World War,most developed countries and some developing countries experienced demographic transition.The dual decline in fertility and mortality rates has caused many serious challenges to the economies and societies of developed countries.As the most developed post-war European economy,the economic growth in the Federal Republic of Germany(herein referred to as the Pre-Unified Federal Republic of Germany,ie West Germany)experienced a transition from “structural acceleration” to “structural slowdown”.The stage and the direction of economic development have changed.At the same time,there has also been a clear shift in the age structure of its population.Judging from the longer time series,the period in which the age structure of the population of the Federal Republic of Germany has a turning point is also the period of “shifting” of economic growth.There is a strong correlation between the change in the rate of economic growth and the age structure of the population.In order to explore this correlation between the age structure of the German population and the rate of economic growth,this paper quantitatively analyzes the long-term effects of changes in the age structure of the population of the Federal Republic of Germany on economic growth from 1952 to 1989 by constructing economic growth accounting equations.The empirical results show that as a “slow variable” that affects economic growth,there is a long-term,deep-level synergy trend between the change in the age structure of the population in the Federal Republic of Germany and economic growth.As the proportion of the elderly population increases and the proportion of the working-age population decreases,the contribution of the age structure of the population to economic growth has declined significantly.Its negative effect on economic growth offsets the promotion of economic growth due to the increase in labor productivity and labor utilization rate.As the proportion of the working-age population increases,the relatively young age structure of the population can stimulate the vitality of promoting the source of economic growth and,to a large extent,boost economic growth.Since the beginning of the 21 st century,China's population age structure has also undergone more significant changes.Since 2004,there has been a labor shortage in the eastern coastal areas of China,which has since spread across the whole country.The working-age population in China has begun to decrease absolutely,and the population is aging at an extremely rapid pace.At the same time,China's economy has also changed from high-speed growth to a new era of stable growth at a moderate pace.The experience of the Federal Republic of Germany shows that under the long-term trend of changing population age structure,the economic slowdown cannot be boosted by short-term fiscal and monetary stimulus policies.Therefore,in the formulation of various strategies in the new era,we must not lose sight of the “population” as a deep-seated influencing factor,especially when dealing with the difficulties brought about by the economic growth transformation and responding to changes in the age structure of the population,we can get some inspiration from the experience of the Federal Republic of Germany.