Research On The Influence Of Population Age Structure On Economic Growth In China

Our country’s economy develop rapidly and the growth rate of GDP per capita is at about 9% since the founding of new China, especially since the reform and opening up. Now our country’s total economic output is the world’s second largest economy, only second to the United States. "China’s economic miracle" lead economists in China even all over the world to explore the reasons behind it, and the population proportion’s increasingly rising is a very important reason of China’s economic growth.But in recent years, China’s population age structure also has changed significantly. On the basis of collecting the data of 1949-2014, including the birth rate, mortality and natural growth rate data of our population, we have found our country’s population age structure advantage start to fade by analyzing the three stages of demographic transition and the change of population age structure brought about by the population transformation China experienced. In 2000 elderly population has reached 70.1%, population aging had appeared in our country, and in 2010 China’s total dependency ratio of population also began to rise after experiencing falling. The labor population of 2012 began to fall for the first time and the resulting dual dilemma "labor shortage" and "pension shortage" also appeared. To cope with the challenges, China decided to start a policy that couples of whom is a child can have two children from November 12,2013. And from January 2016,our coutry began to open up "two-child" policy. Under this background, this article makes every effort to analyze the influence of population age structure to economic growth in China from theory and empirical aspects on the basis of our country’s condition.So this paper first reviews the related literature at home and abroad which is about the relation between the population age structure and economic growth, and on this basis we put forward the theoretical research framework in this paper; Secondly this article introduces the theory of demographic transition, the population age structure demographic dividend theory and new growth theory respectively, and then, this paper introduces the mechanism of population age structure affecting economic growth, but unlike most of the literature with perspective analysis of the demographic dividend in this paper to analyze the effect of population age structure to economic growth, this paper points out that the population age structure respectively by affecting labor supply, social saving and human capital to influence economic growth, which strengthened the theory basis of the population age structure and economic growth; Then according to the collection of 1990-2014, the time series statistics of total 25 years, and the solow model including human capital, we make a empirical research of the direct effects and indirect effects of economic growth through OLS estimation analysis method. In the regression model we not only account for the working population separately as an independent variable to examine the direct impact of population age structure on economic growth, but also include the interaction item of the labor population proportion and human capital in economic growth model to make a research on the the indirect effect of the population age structure on economic growth. And through the least squares estimation method to make empirical study, the empirical results show that when labor population increase by 1 unit, per capita GDP growth increase by 1.53 units, and when labor population increase by 1 unit, by acting on health human capital and educational human capital stock, the human capital effect on economic growth is also positive:when the proportion of working population increase by 1 unit, per capita GDP growth will increase by 0.34 units by increasing the human capital stock.At the end, based on the above empirical research conclusions and according to the actual situation in China the paper put forward relevant policy Suggestions to more effectively promote economic growth and to provide new economic growth source in our country by increasing labor supply, improving the quality of the workers, the creation of new source saving and developing aging industry.