An Empirical Analysis Of The Impact Of Population Structure On Credit

Bank credit has always been the focus of research by scholars at home and abroad.Especially after the outbreak of the financial crisis in 2008,the Chinese government launched a package plan to expand domestic demand,and the credit business of Chinese financial institutions entered a period of expansion.The expansion of credit has once again aroused the enthusiasm of scholars at home and abroad.Due to different research perspectives,the factors affecting credit in different literatures are not the same.China is a country with a large population and its population structure has undergone many changes.From the perspective of demographic transition,the article studies its impact on credit,which enriches the research content of credit influencing factors.In the critical period of the country's adjustment of population structure,the research content of the article is conducive to enable residents to fully understand the impact mechanism of population structure on credit,so that residents can treat financial loans more rationally.Due to the vast territory of China,the development level of population structure and credit scale in the eastern,central and western regions is obviously unbalanced.It is of practical significance to study the impact mechanism of population structure on credit in different regions,so as to provide targeted credit measures for each region.Reliable data support.The paper analyzes the data of 2004-2016 in 31 provinces of China through static panel data model and panel vector autoregressive model,and studies the direct impact mechanism and indirect impact mechanism of population structure on credit.The content is divided into five chapters.The first chapter introduces the background,research significance and research methods of the article,and summarizes the innovation and inadequacies of the article.The second chapter summarizes the domestic and foreign literature on population structure and credit,and sorts out his research direction and research problems.On the basis of the life cycle theory,the third chapter uses the permanent income hypothesis model to derive the relationship between credit and household consumption and all capital of residents,and statistically describes the demographic structure and credit variables.The fourth chapter constructs the static panel data model and uses the iterative GLS estimation method to study the direct impact mechanism of population structure on credit,and then compares the regional data estimation results with the national data estimation results.The robustness test is performed using the method of variable substitution.In the fifth chapter,the impulse response function is modeled by the panel vector autoregressive model.The indirect influence mechanism of population structure on credit is analyzed by function image.On this basis,the variance decomposition analysis is carried out,and the variable replacement method is used to conduct the robust test..The sixth chapter summarizes the content of empirical analysis and proposes countermeasures for the current demographic structure and credit status.Through theoretical and empirical analysis,the article mainly draws the following conclusions:(1)On the basis of data modeling and analysis,the direct effect of population structure on credit is mainly reflected in the positive correlation between population age structure and short-term credit,gender ratio,There is a negative correlation between average family size,urbanization rate and short-term credit;there is a negative correlation between population age structure and medium-and long-term credit,while gender ratio,average household population,urbanization rate,primary school population and college and above population and middle There is a positive correlation between long-term credit;in addition,there is a positive correlation between the marriage rate and the proportion of junior high school students and medium-and long-term credit.(2)Through the modeling and analysis of data in the eastern and western regions,the demographic structure has the same effect on credit.(3)The effect of the indirect impact of population structure on credit is mainly reflected in the fact that the ratio of child rearing and old-age dependency in the population structure has a positive impact on short-term credit through consumption,and then the weakening of this influence turns negative;The ratio of child rearing and old-age dependency has a positive impact on consumption in the medium and long-term credit,and this positive impact has an increasing trend.The indirect impact of population age structure on medium and long-term credit through fixed asset investment was significantly negative in the current period,and the negative impact relationship gradually weakened to zero in the first period of lag;the indirect impact of population age structure on short-term credit through fixed asset investment was positive.